Video courtesy of PTV

The Philippines' daily tally of new COVID-19 cases could go down to 2,000 by the end of November if the downward trend being observed now continues, independent OCTA Research Group said on Monday.

"Iyong projection natin sa ngayon, kung magpatuloy ang trend natin na pababa pa rin ang bilang ng kaso, maaaring bumaba tayo to 2,000 cases per day sa buong bansa by end of November," OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said in a televised public briefing.

"Inaasahan natin ‘yan. Sana magkatotoo ‘yan. At kung mangyayari ‘yan, patuloy na magiging maganda iyong ating holidays sa December," added David, a professor of mathematics at the University of the Philippines.

(Our projection for now is if the trend of declining cases continues, we can go down to 2,000 cases per day in the whole country by end of November. We hope it will come true. And if that happens, our holidays in December will be good.)

The Department of Health (DOH) said last month that the decline in infections that time was not "artificial."

• DOH: COVID-19 cases going down, decline not 'artificial'

The decline in cases was due to the widening COVID-19 vaccination coverage, according to David in an earlier interview.

• Philippines' decline in daily COVID cases due to wide vaccine coverage: OCTA

David reminded Filipinos, "Nakabase ito sa trends. At kailangan, para mapatuloy ang trends, kailangan talaga sumunod tayo sa mga minimum public health standards."

(This is based on trends. And for trends to continue, we need to follow public health standards.)

Metro Manila's positivity rate, which measures the proportion of people who test positive using RT-PCR, has gone down to 5 percent, the "ideal number recommended by the World Health Organization," David said.

"‘Pag less than 5 percent, ibig sabihin, we are testing enough... We are seeing an actual trend na bumababa talaga iyong cases, hindi lang dahil kumakaunti iyong testing. Kumakaunti iyong testing dahil kumakaunti iyong cases natin," he said.

(If it is less than 5 percent, it means we are testing enough. We are seeing an actual trend in which cases are going down, and not just because we are testing less. The testing is going down because our cases are fewer.)

David added that most parts of Metro Manila have daily attack rates below 7 percent. This is the percentage of an at-risk population that contracts COVID-19.

"Based sa aming pagbasa ng datos (based on our reading of data), it’s actually safe to reopen our businesses at this time," he said.

The researcher also noted that over 80 percent of Metro Manila's nearly 13.5 million people have been fully vaccinated against the coronavirus.

"We support iyong pag-relax sa [ng Metro Manila sa] Alert Level 2 para makabawi ang ating mga negosyo. Pero we should do so in a safe manner. Kailangan sumusunod pa rin tayo sa protocols," David said.

(We support the relaxation of Metro Manila to Alert Level 2 so our businesses can recover. But we should do so in a safe manner. We should still follow protocols.)

The Philippines has tallied some 2.78 million overall coronavirus infections, including 21,294 cases recorded from Oct. 21 to 27, according to the health department's online tracker.

Of the total, 45,233 cases were active, as of Sunday.

The country's positivity rate was at 7.2 percent, based on test results of samples from 46,450 individuals on Oct. 29.

• Philippines confirms 3,410 new COVID cases; 128 new deaths

Some 27.2 people in the country have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, representing 35.35 percent of the government's 77.1 million target, the ABS-CBN Investigative and Research Group said.

More than 31.8 million others have received their first dose of the vaccine.

• Philippines: COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker

Some lawmakers have criticized OCTA for the methodology it employs for its analyses. The research group said it bases its studies on data from the DOH.