MANILA — National security analyst Professor Rommel Banlaoi believes former President Rodrigo Duterte’s recent visit to China, albeit unofficial, can help improve relations between China and the Philippines, since the current administration’s foreign policy is not favorable to China.

“The feeling in China about President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s decision to expand EDCA is not only the feeling of unhappiness, but the feeling of betrayal. You know if you feel betrayed that’s a strong feeling, and Duterte eased that feeling with President Xi Jinping, and made assurance to China [that] 'Hey, Filipinos are still friends of the Chinese,'” Banlaoi said.

• China's Xi meets with ex-president Duterte in Beijing

Duterte shifted towards closer ties with China and Russia, despite being a long standing treaty ally of the United States, during his term.

Both Marcos and the Department of Foreign Affairs admitted that they were not aware of Duterte’s visit to China.

On August 2, Duterte met with Marcos to talk about his visit and meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

• Marcos Jr., ex-pres. Duterte meet in Malacañang

For Banlaoi, Marcos can turn to his predecessor as a mentor.

But for political scientist Professor Robin Michael Garcia, there is a stark difference between Duterte's and the current administration's foreign policy, with the latter rekindling its alliance with the United States.

“Is the paradigm of Duterte consistent with the paradigm of President Marcos? So if there’s an appointment of Duterte as an envoy to China, he has to align with the priorities of the current administration,” Garcia pointed out.

He also explained that the Philippines has a conflict of interest with China, suggesting caution in partnerships and cooperation especially with the military.

Recently, newly installed Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief Romeo Brawner shared to the media that China is offering the prospect of having a joint military exercise with the Philippines.

• China eyeing military drills with Philippines despite tensions, AFP chief says

“China wants some level of dominance in the region and to move the US out of the region, the interference of the US. But we have clearly moved towards the US and we have decided that it’s in our interest to keep the United States in the Philippines... clearly we have a conflict of interest with the Chinese military so why will you have a partnership with the military of any kind with China,” said Garcia.

• Senado kinondena ang panggigipit ng China sa mga mangingisda

Garcia also believes that the Philippines must be careful in dealing with China, even on the economic front, as the US Embassy recently expressed concern not only on the environmental impact but also on the involvement in the Manila Bay reclamation project of a Chinese company deeply linked with the Chinese government and its militarization of the South China Sea.

“There are studies that have come out from reputable academic institutions and thinktanks that China has influenced operations in the Philippines and that it has an interest in making sure that the government of the country will remain friendly to China to protect China’s interest."

"So any company that’s involved with the Chinese government — I think the Philippines has to be wary and be concerned and be careful in selecting who we do business with... if there is already a credible body such as the World Bank and other international financial institutions who flagged the potentially malicious and fraudulent practice of these companies. We have to at least examine and entertain the idea, we might need to rescind the contract or to recalibrate our involvement with those companies,” Garcia said.

Both analysts agree however that an escalation of conflict between the US and China would be catastrophic for the Philippines and the world.

Garcia believes that the resolution at the United Nations' General Assembly will help propel the Philippines’ national interests, but he also feels that it is equally important to push for a Code of Conduct between ASEAN countries.

“The UN General Assembly proposal is important but equally important is pushing for the Code of Conduct, specifically the provision of demilitarization — all countries to remove their military installments and occupations,” Garcia stressed.

But Banlaoi thinks otherwise.

“Any form of militarization, military exercise with the United States, filing a resolution in the United Nations General Assembly will not lead to the peaceful resolution of conflict with China. We can only have peaceful resolution of conflicts with China and with the rest of claimants in the West Philippine Sea through direct negotiations,” Banlaoi said.