MANILA (UPDATE)— The government must implement a "hard GCQ (general community quarantine)" to address the continued increase in COVID-19 cases, the OCTA Research Group on Friday said.

This, as the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) on COVID-19 announced the 2-week closure of some industries in areas under general community quarantine, including Metro Manila, to help curb the spread of the disease.

• IATF shuts down cinemas, arcades, museums for 2 weeks in GCQ areas

“The status quo is not enough. We need more mobility restrictions,” said Prof. Ranjit Rye of the OCTA Group during a virtual forum.

Philippines on Friday reported 7,103 new COVID-19 cases, the highest recorded daily tally in the country since the pandemic began over a year ago, with the number of active infections also at its highest in nearly 7 months. This raises the country’s total number of infections to 648,066.

“Time is of the essence here. We are in a surge that is very different and potentially is more serious. Actually it’s more serious than the last surge,” said Rye.

• HIGHEST EVER: PH reports record-high 7,103 new COVID-19 cases

For OCTA group, "hard GCQ” meant discouraging social gatherings and indoor dining; implementing a more significant work-from-home set-up for industries that can implement it; and use of quarantine pass for those who need to report for work physically, among others.

“Our notion of hard GCQ should include a significant amount of our workforce both in the private sector and the public sector working from home or on a staggered work hour system,” he said.

Rye said OCTA Group is calling for a "Hard GCQ" where social gatherings, indoor dining are discourages. It also involves a significant work from home strategy for sectors that can implement but mass transportation still has to be available @ABSCBNNews pic.twitter.com/bzlwYFJ9nQ

— Kristine Sabillo 🇵🇭 (@kristinesabillo) March 19, 2021

"Right now our position still holds we have a hard GCQ a very strict one and if the R continues to escalate then we go to MECQ. But we want a softer kind of MECQ where you have transportation, where you have support for our workers, where arrangements are made so certain establishments are opened," Rye said, referring to R naught or reproduction number which is now at 1.9. A reproduction number of almost 2 means the virus is spreading faster and can infect 2 people for each patient.

He maintained that granular or localized lockdowns, which are being implemented for specific areas or villages with a relatively high number of COVID-19 cases, is not enough to curb coronavirus transmissions.

Dr. Guido David, who does the group’s COVID-19 projections, said that the number of cases is higher for the current surge but that the health sector is handling the situation better.

He said the cases now are “33% more than we had last year before MECQ (modified enhanced community quarantine.”

However, the occupancy of COVID-dedicated bed is only at 50% now compared to the 83% during the week of July 28 to August 3, 2020.

“The only difference is that we are more prepared in terms of health care capacity. We have more hospital beds. We have more ICU beds,” David said.

However. Fr. Nicanor Austriaco pointed out that it will be challenging for hospitals as cases continue to increase due to the limited number of health care staff.

“What would have to happen is that the hospital would have to reallocate a non-COVID bed to a COVID ward,” he said. “One of the limiting factors of the public health structure in NCR at this time is actually staffing.”

He said the current allocated beds, based on his projection, might reach critical levels or full capacity by the first week of April.

The WHO on Friday also said that in case increase in the number of infected patients overwhelm health facilities, more stringent quarantine measures might be required. The WHO official said this is why the government and the public should work together to avoid another strict lockdown.

The WHO said the increase in cases is due to low compliance to health standards, partly attributed to vaccine optimism, and the presence of more transmissible COVID-19 variants.

• WHO: PH COVID-19 surge due to low quarantine compliance, vaccine optimism, variants

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