Daily COVID-19 cases can reach 11,000 by end of March if trend continues: OCTA

Trishia Billones, ABS-CBN News

Posted at Mar 16 2021 09:01 AM | Updated as of Mar 16 2021 09:19 AM

Daily COVID-19 cases can reach 11,000 by end of March if trend continues: OCTA 1
Workers from the Manila Sanitation Department conduct a sanitation operation in a community in Gagalangin, Tondo, Manila on March 15, 2021. The city of Manila placed 6 barangays- 185, 374, 521, 628, 675, and 847 -under localized lockdown from March 17 to March 20 as COVDI-19 cases continue to rise in the city. 

MANILA - New cases of COVID-19 in the Philippines can reach up to 11,000 daily if the current trend continues, a member of the OCTA Research Group said Tuesday.

The team earlier projected daily cases going up to 8,000, but the reproduction rate or the number of people infected by a virus patient has now risen to 2.03, according to OCTA Research fellow Guido David. 

"Right now, the numbers that you mentioned, 8,000 to 9,000, they have now been upped to about 10 to 11,000 by the end of this month unfortunately," he told ANC's Headstart.

David said the outbreak started in the cities of Pasay, Malabon, and Navotas but has spread to "many areas" of Metro Manila, which are "now undergoing an increase in new cases" while cases in the 3 original locations "are actually slowing down."

"Most areas in NCR are now having an increase and many areas are nearing the levels that you saw last August," he said.

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There is also an increase in cases in provinces near the National Capital Region, such as Rizal, Cavite, and Bulacan. In Cebu City, where cases had been going down, David said they are now "seeing a slight uptick."

Increased mobility is one of the factors for the COVID-19 surge, as well as "decreased compliance with health standards," he said.

"More people outdoors not complying with guidelines or not completely complying with them. More social gatherings, I believe, are occurring," he said.

This can also be attributed in part to the presence of new coronavirus variants, he said.

"Currently, the data shows that the prevalence is not maybe 10 percent, but this could change very quickly soon," he said, explaining that in the United Kingdom, the virus' prevalence jumped to 50 percent from 10 percent in just a month.

The Department of Health on Monday reported 5,404 new COVID-19 cases, the fourth highest reported in a day since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak in the country. The total number of infections in the country currently stands at 626,893.


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