Philippines could record 140,000 COVID-19 cases by end-August, warns UP expert


Posted at Jul 27 2020 07:32 AM | Updated as of Jul 27 2020 07:43 AM

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MANILA - The Philippines could record up to 90,000 COVID-19 cases by the end of July and up to 140,000 COVID-19 cases by the end of August, an expert from the University of the Philippines said Monday. 

Mathematics professor Dr. Guido David, a member of the UP OCTA Research group, said the group had to adjust its earlier projection of 85,000 cases by end-July as caseload of new COVID-19 patients continued to rise particularly in the National Capital Region. 

"Hindi pababa sa ngayon pero ang trend sa Cebu is pababa na. Na-fa-flatten na ang curve sa Cebu. Ang trend talaga sa NCR pataas, hindi lang sa NCR, pati Calabarzon nadamay din," he said in an interview on ABS-CBN's TeleRadyo. 

David said the decision to return Cebu under enhanced community quarantine could explain the decrease in COVID-19 cases there. 

"Bumalik sila sa [enhanced community quarantine] kaya napababa ang cases. Tayo naman parang nagbaba tayo ng guard, nag relax ang tao," he said. 

The Philippines reported 2,110 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Sunday bringing the country’s total to 80,448.

Of the confirmed cases, 52,406 were deemed active, of which 89.83 percent were classified as mild, 9.25 percent were asymptomatic, 0.49 percent were severe and 0.42 percent were critical. 

The National Capital Region had the most number of new cases at 1,345. It was followed by provinces of Cebu with 304, Laguna with 109, Negros Occidental with 66 and Rizal with 40. 

A proposal to return to modified enhanced community quarantine could be a last resort, David noted, if local government measures to contain the virus spread fail. He warned that hospitals could be overwhelmed if the government fails to arrest the increase in COVID-19 cases.

Presidential Spokesperson Harry Roque earlier said Metro Manila may revert to a much stricter ‘modified enhanced community quarantine’ measures if the number of confirmed virus infections rises to 85,000 by July 31.