MANILA — The estimated number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in the Philippines could reach 364,000 by 2030, the Department of Health warned Friday, if the rapid increase in new infections is sustained.

Nearly half of the new infections will be among the youth aged 15-24, said Noel Palaypayon of the National HIV & STI Surveillance and Strategic Information Unit of the DOH's Epidemiology Bureau.

"The new infections are projected to continuously increase in the next years," he said in a virtual town hall forum. "With this, if current efforts in HIV response is maintained, the estimated PLHIV in the Philippines could reach 364,000 by 2030."

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An estimated 1.5 million people worldwide were diagnosed with HIV in 2021, a 32 percent decline in new HIV infections since 2010.

This was not the case for the Philippines as there were 21,400 persons who were newly infected with HIV in 2021, Palaypayon said. This is a 327 percent increase in annual new infections between 2010-2021.

According to latest UNAIDS data, some 38.4 million people globally were living with HIV in 2021. About 650,000 people also died from AIDS-related illnesses in the same year.

Palaypayon also noted that diagnosed cases among PLHIV in the country have been increasing, with a total of 112,028 reported cases from 1984 to February 2023.

In 2012, the newly diagnosed cases per day was 9. As of February 2023, the average daily cases is at 47.

YOUNG PEOPLE

Since January 2005, there were 4,699 HIV cases reported among young people or those aged 10-19, Palaypayon said.

In February, 54 adolescents were diagnosed with HIV, the latest HIV/AIDS and ART Registry of the Philippines showed.

Of the 54 cases, 96 percent were males and 20 percent were classified as AIDS or having advanced HIV infection. All cases were transmitted through sex.

Palaypayon said the practice of risky behavior starts early while protective behaviors start late among key populations such as males having sex with males (MSM) and transgender women (TGW).

Partial results from the 2022 Integrated HIV Behavioral and Serologic Surveillance data showed that MSM and TGW were engaged in first sex at the age of 16, had their first anal sex at 17 but only used condom at 19.

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Palaypayon also noted gaps in knowledge on HIV transmission and prevention, and awareness on the availability of HIV services was lowest among young MSM and TGW.

Moreover, protective behavior and access to HIV services among MSM and TGW remain low, he added.

Aside from unprotected sex, Palaypayon said MSM and TGW also engage in risky behaviors such as multiple sex partners and using alcohol and drugs.

Gaps also exist in the HIV care cascade, which contribute to the increasing new HIV infections in the country, he added.

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