MANILA — Former senator Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr.' retained his lead over his rivals in May's presidential race in the latest Social Weather Stations survey conducted last month, its results released Wednesday showed.

Marcos garnered a 31-point lead over his closest rival Vice President Leni Robredo, getting 50 percent of support from respondents of the Jan. 28-31 poll versus the latter's 19 percent, according to Stratbase ADR Institute, which commissioned the polls.

A similar survey by SWS last Oct. 20-23, 2021 showed Marcos getting 47 percent, and Robredo, 18 percent.

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The latest Pulse Asia survey, conducted Jan. 19-24, also saw Marcos as the first choice among presidential candidates, with 60 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him "if the May 2022 elections were held today."

Robredo came in second with 16 percent.

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A Reuters report said the latest SWS survey had 1,200 respondents.

Stratbase said Manila Mayor Isko Moreno Domagoso and Sen. Manny Pacquiao shared the third spot in that poll with 11 percent each.

In the October survey, Domagoso garnered 13 percent, while Pacquiao had 9 percent.

Sen. Panfilo "Ping" Lacson took 6 percent in the latest survey, followed by labor leader Leody De Guzman with 0.3 percent; Jose Montemayor, with 0.1 percent; and Ernie Abella and Faisal Mangondato, with 0.04 percent each.

Stratbase ADR said that according to SWS, candidate Norberto Gonzales was included in the list but was not chosen by any of the respondents.

Three percent of the respondents were undecided.

The latest survey was conducted before Marcos skipped a live forum with his rivals, and before the Commission on Elections dismissed petitions challenging his candidacy.

POLL FOR VICE PRESIDENT

Marcos' running-mate Davao City Mayor Sara-Duterte Carpio remained the top choice for vice president in the January SWS poll, with 44-percent preference.

Senate President Vicente "Tito" Sotto III, Lacson's running mate, placed second with 33 percent.

Sen. Kiko Pangilinan, who is Robredo's tandem, trailed with 10 percent, while Dr. Willing Ong (Domagoso's running mate) got 7 percent and Buhay party-list Rep. Lito Atienza (Pacquiao's running mate) had 2 percent.

PREDICTION OR SNAPSHOT?

Analysts have said election surveys are mere “snapshots of the moment” and do not necessarily predict the outcome of the polls.

“If you will be predictive of what you see, you cannot at this point…there’s no linear way to victory in the 2022 Elections," said Stratbase ADR Institute president Dindo Manhit.

“It could be a landslide for Marcos on May 9, or a tight race where we will simply have somebody at a little over 30 percent winning the presidency” he said in a briefing.

Manhit noted that in the Jan. 19-24 Pulse Asia survey, 10 percent of respondents said there was a "big possibility" that their preferred presidential candidate would change, while 18 percent could not say whether this possibility was big or small.

He recalled that the late former president Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III was not the leading contender in the January 2010 survey. Meanwhile, President Rodrigo Duterte only emerged as the survey frontrunner some 3 weeks before the 2016 elections, he added.

WHAT OTHER CANDIDATES CAN DO

He said Marcos' strong survey showing is “driven by numbers in NCR initially.”

“Imagine if he (Domagoso) can build his campaign around the National Capital Region? The National Capital Region can go down for Marcos,” he said.

Robredo meanwhile could focus her efforts on her home region Bicol, as well as southern and Central Luzon, which is what she did in the 2016 vice presidential race that Marcos lost by a narrow margin, said Manhit.

“In terms of the Visayas, why is our senator-legend boxer Manny Pacquiao moving around the country? He should concentrate first in the Bisaya-speaking provinces of Region 7,” Manhit said.

He continued, “Or on the part of VP Leni Robredo, she did very well in Western Visayas [in 2016]… If she can add more activity there, then you can make Visayas more competitive against Bongbong Marcos.”

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