The El Nino phenomenon could affect the Philippines in the first five months of 2024, peaking in April and bringing drought to 63 provinces, the Department of Science and Technology warned Wednesday.

"Posibleng maramdaman natin hanggang Mayo 2024...Lahat naman ng probinsya ng bansa ay maaapektuhan depende sa buwan pero ang kasagsagan ay Abril kung saan 63 probinsiya ang tinatawag natin na under drought condition na sa 5 buwan ay may below rainfall, 21 percent lower," DOST Secretary Renato Solidum told TeleRadyo Serbisyo.

He added another 12 provinces will also experience a dry spell, which means below average rainfall. Caraga and Davao Oriental will not be affected by a dry spell, he said.

El Nino — a natural, cyclical climate pattern that causes hot weather — could affect water supply in different parts of the country, not just Metro Manila, Solidum said.

This, amid assurances by the Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System (MWSS) along with water concessionaires Maynilad and Manila Water, that a repeat of the 2019 water crisis in Metro Manila is unlikely.

• DENR: 'Major problems' ahead if El Niño persists in second half of 2024

"Ang MWSS ang concern nila ay pang Metro Manila lamang, tama? Pagdating sa Metro Manila sa supply, sa kasalukuyan yung level ng Angat Dam ay above nung 212 meters na desired operation kaya nagpapakawala pa sila," Solidum noted.

Climate projections by the Washington-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also forecast a a 54% chance of a "historically strong" El Niño during the November-January season, instead of the 2nd quarter of 2024.

"Magkakaroon ng tendency na maging neutral ang El Niño. Ibig sabihin, imbes na 2nd quarter ang tagal ng 'strong category' ng El Niño, ito ay nakikita hanggang January at although ang El Niño may epekto hanggang May, mukhang magneu-neutral na. Pababa na ang lakas ng El Niño bandang April, May, June," the DOST chief said.

This means that rainfall may be near normal or normal around May or June, he said.

He advised the public to conserve water and electricity, noting that lower demand could help existing supply last longer.