DENR: 'Major problems' ahead if El Niño persists in second half of 2024

MANILA (UPDATE) — The Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) warned of potential “major problems” in the water supply should the El Niño phenomenon extend beyond the second quarter of 2024.

The water supply from Angat Dam and other sources can meet the demand "until around May or June of 2024," DENR Undersecretary Carlos Primo David told reporters on Monday.

Angat Dam supplies around 90 percent of Metro Manila’s potable water requirement.

“We’re trying to preserve it that way so that once we enter 2024, it’s at its maximum volume... If the El Niño event next year progresses, intensifies, and even extends further than June, then it will be a major problem for Metro Manila,” David said.

He said Metro Manila could experience a repeat of the 2019 water crisis, where residents lined up for water rations and some hospitals faced days of limited or no water supply.

“We want to prevent that. Twenty-first century na. We should be better in terms of forecasting, better in terms of managing our resources,” the official said.

State weather bureau PAGASA earlier said around 65 provinces across the country could experience drought, while six others might experience dry spell by the end of May 2024.

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Environment Secretary Ma. Antonia Yulo-Loyzaga reminded local leaders to take the lead and “assess their needs and the risk of climate change to their specific local government units.”

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. recently ordered a restructure of the El Niño Task Force comprised of 5 subcommittees on water security, energy, public safety, health, and food security. The DENR is said to be in charge of water security.

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WATER PROJECTS

In November, the DENR said 135 water projects around the country would require private sector funding with the “end goal of providing potable water for many of the communities that are facing water scarcity.”

“In the pipeline already is one of the biggest water projects since 10 years ago. I’m speaking of the Cavite bulk water supply which is the second provincial-wide water supply program of the country, next to Bulacan bulk. That project will start and all the preparations, in 2024. That’s outside pa of the 135,” David said.

Last week, Marcos also led the inauguration of a water treatment plant in Muntinlupa.

“Once it’s fully operational, you’re looking at about a million people that will be able to access treated water from that facility. So importante yung not just supply but the treatment of that supply and the distribution of that supply,” said Loyzaga.

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NO SHORTAGE?

But for Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System (MWSS) along with water concessionaires Maynilad and Manila Water, a repeat of the 2019 water crisis in Metro Manila is unlikely.

Speaking to reporters, Patrick Dizon, MWSS Division Manager, explained that based on projections of the Angat Technical Working Group and simulations of the National Water Resources Board, the reservoir may dip to 180 meters, considered to be the minimum operating level, by June 2024.

The El Niño is forecast to last until the 2nd quarter of next year. Low water levels and El Niño spell not only as threats to steady water supply but even more so as risks to food security and health. In 2019, Metro Manila’s demand for water was amplified by the lack of it.

But Dizon is banking on historical data.

“Base na rin po sa El Niño ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) Alert, ng ating PAGASA ay ang sabi po niya ay magiging neutral na raw ‘yung epekto ng El Niño sa atin comes June or July at ito naman po ‘yung transition time at tumataas na rin ‘yung percent probability na magkakaroon po tayo ng La Niña by June or July. Kami naman ay kampante dahil hindi naman nagkakamali itong historical data,” he said.

As of writing, the current level of Angat Dam is 213.24 meters, slightly above its normal high water level of 212 meters. So far, around 90 percent of Metro Manila’s water requirement is sourced from Angat Dam.

But Dizon explained there are also measures in place and projects in the works to cull water from other sources.

“Naka-prepare naman po kami sa ating mga augmentation measures or ‘yung pinangako po namin na io-augment po namin na mga proyekto like ‘yung mga projects po namin, mga water treatment plant sa Laguna Lake, ito po ay sa Poblacion water treatment plant sa Muntinlupa... at ‘yung East Bay water treatment plant sa may part po ng Pakil, Laguna, already ongoing at we are targeting to operate po ‘yung planta, ‘yung first phase po nito na 500 million liters per day by January next year,” said Dizon.

“Aside from that meron na rin po tayong mga deep wells, ‘yung rehabilitation ng mga deep wells is around 120 million liters per day po ito na kaya na rin po nating i-operate just in case mabawasan po ‘yung allocation natin from Angat Dam,” he added.

Water concessionaires Maynilad and Manila Water are also confident that the public will not experience the shortage experienced back in 2019.

Since PAGASA’s announcement of the looming El Niño earlier in the year, both have prepared measures to avoid the possibility of water scarcity.

But even though supply remains stable at this point, they reminded the public to continue practicing water austerity measures.

The MWSS said around 1,000 liters of water is used by a household with five to seven members per day. The amount can be further reduced if only each member will be consciously wise in using the precious resource.

Data from the MWSS also show that around 6 liters of water is used when washing hands under a running faucet for 40 seconds, 15 liters when brushing teeth, and up to 60 liters during an 8-minute continuous shower.

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