Analysis: What will Sara Duterte’s next move be after dropping Davao mayoral bid?


Posted at Nov 10 2021 02:00 AM | Updated as of Nov 10 2021 02:32 AM

Duterete Manman Dejeto/file
One professor says it is likely Davao city Mayor Sara Duterte will run for vice president with presidential aspirant Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Manman Dejeto/file

MANILA—After withdrawing her candidacy for the Davao city mayoralty, local political analysts weighed in on what Sara Duterte-Carpio's next move would be.

For Prof. Aries Arugay of University of the Philippines, it is possible Duterte will run for vice president and be Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr.'s running mate.

"Ang basa ko is VP, I think, kasi mayroon ding developments na mga nakaraan," Arugay told Teleradyo, noting that Marcos recently said Duterte will not run for president.

(I think she will run for vice president, because there are also recent developments.)

"Pangalawa, ’yung pag-withdraw ni Mayor Sara, kaakibat naman noon ’yung statement ni Sen. Bong Go na wala nang kasiguruhan ’yung pagtakbo niya as VP.

(Second, along with Mayor Sara's withdrawal of her candidacy, Sen. Bong Go has also said that his vice-presidential candidacy is uncertain.)

"So ’yung 2 indikasyon na ’yun, may malaking tsansa o likelihood na si Mayor Sara ay ang magiging running mate (ni Marcos)."

(So based on these 2 indications, there is a big chance or likelihood that Mayor Sara will be Marcos' running mate.)

Arugay said that it was more feasible for Duterte to run for vice president since Marcos has yet to announce his running mate.

"Pero nakikita na natin ’yun kasi ang tagal tagal magsabi ng running-mate ni Marcos since he filed his candidacy," he said.

(We also see that Marcos has yet to announce who his running-mate will be even after he filed his candidacy.)

"In terms of their age, in terms of their perhaps readiness, baka may ganoong logic (there might be that logic)."

Prof. Edmund Tayao of Ateneo de Manila said it was still difficult to say what Duterte's next move will be.

"Perhaps, and I'm just speculating, it might have something to do with the recent pronouncements. It could be, could be about the recent pronouncements of Senator Bong Go, but again, because there's no categorical statement or sharing in this regard, it's just an effort on anyone's part to put two and two together," he said.

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Meanwhile, former justice secretary and election law professor Atty. Alberto Agra said the only way Duterte-Carpio and Marcos could run as a tandem is if they would substitute candidates of either PDP-Laban or Lakas-CMD, since both parties fielded their own presidential and vice presidential candidates.

"Kung pipiliin nila ang existing party nila, hindi magtutugma," Agra said.

Duterte chairs the regional political party Hugpong ng Pagbabago, which has not endorsed a presidential candidate next year.

Marcos, on the other hand, is running under Partido Federal ng Pilipinas.

Agra said there won't be any problem should Marcos and Duterte choose to switch political parties, as this was not prohibited by the law.

"Walang pagbabawal ng lipatan sa batas, at yung dating pagbabawal sa mga Comelec resolution, wala na 'yung pagbabawal ngayon, kaya nga nagiging posible ang tinatawag nating party switching," he said.

(There is no prohibition in the law, and the previous prohibitions from Comelec resolutions are not applicable now, so party switching is possible.)

On the issue of term-sharing, Agra said it is impossible for the president and vice president to switch places. However, if the president decides to resign, then the vice president will assume the position of president.

"Sa usapin ng term sharing, president, vice president, ’yung isa nahalal as president, ’yung isa nahalal as vice president, hindi sila pwedeng mag-switching kasi nahalal sila para sa isang posisyon. Maliban na lamang na kung sino ’yung presidente, at magreresign, ang epekto noon, si vice president ang papalit sa kanya as president," he explained.

(In terms of term sharing for the president and vice president, one was elected as president, the other as vice president, so they are not allowed to switch since they were elected in a specific position. However, if the president resigns, then the vice president will become president.)

"Hindi pwedeng palitan. Kailangan magresign 'yung presidente at 'yung vice president ang magiging presidente."

(But they cannot switch. The president should resign before the vice president can become president.)

Speculation about Duterte's next move became a hot topic following her announcement Tuesday afternoon.

The mayor, who has topped surveys for the presidency, earlier said she and her father, President Rodrigo Duterte, had agreed only one of them would run for a national role next year. 

President Duterte initially said he would run for vice president, but in a surprise move in October said he was retiring from politics when his term ends in 2022. 

He said his 43-year-old daughter would vie for the presidency with his longtime aide, Go, as running mate. 

Go, who filed his candidacy for Vice President under the PDP-Laban party (Cusi wing, which is backed by President Duterte), said on Tuesday that there might be changes in his vice presidential bid.

This further fueled speculations that Duterte-Carpio will be running for a national position.

Go's running-mate Sen. Ronald "Bato" Dela Rosa earlier said it would be "better" if Duterte-Carpio ran for president in his place.

Various groups have urged Duterte-Carpio to run for the country's No. 1 job in next year's polls. But she has repeatedly said she would not join the 2022 presidential race. In January this year, she appealed to those who want her to run for president to wait until 2034.


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