MANILA — President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr's foreign trips, the creation of the US-PH Bilateral Defense Guidelines, and his administration's stronger stance on the West Philippine Sea would be helpful for the Philippines in the long-run, analysts said, even as the government continues to balance its separate ties with the United States and China.

International Affairs analyst Renato De Castro said Marcos, who will mark Friday his first year in power, is trying to achieve his goal of a balanced foreign policy by strengthening the country's security relations with the US and like-minded security partners such as Japan and Australia, while enhancing economic relations with China.

Marcos vowed during his first State of the Nation Address (SONA) in July last year that he would pursue an independent foreign policy during his term through 2028.

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Marcos, whose predecessor Rodrigo Duterte forged warmer ties with China amid the territorial disputes in the South China Sea, said "the Philippines shall continue to be a friend to all and an enemy to none."

"What makes him different from his predecessors is his effort to engage with the United States and ensure there is a balance. This is based on his recognition that... it's kinda risky to simply focus on developing your economic relations with China with a simple expectation... that this would prevent China from being aggressive in the South China Sea," De Castro said in a recent interview with ABS-CBN News.

"It was something former President Rodrigo Duterte did not experience so he want to avoid it," he added.

Marcos is using development diplomacy, which was used by his namesake father who was president from 1965 until 1986, said De Castro.

This strategy is usually achieved through participation in multilateral activities in the global and regional level.

"Investments, exports, and more significantly... extending protection to Filipinos working abroad. This is something that became apparent... this made development diplomacy more urgent than ever — assistance to nationals," said De Castro, who teaches at De La Salle University.

13 FOREIGN TRIPS

Marcos' rapport-building and some of his 13 foreign travels were necessary during his first year, said Aries Arugay, chairman of the University of the Philippines' Department of Political Science.

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"Yung pag-build niya ng rapport... imahe ng Pilipinas, that is something, let's be fair, that is something that was needed given how the Philippines is being pictured during the time of Duterte," said Arugay in a separate interview with ABS-CBN News.

But he notes, "If he still continues to lavishly travel at the same rate, if not higher, then that would be not only excessive but that would be detrimental."

For Maria Fe Mendoza, a professor and former dean at the UP National College of Public Administration and Governance (NCPAG), the number of Marcos' foreign trips so far "is not normal."

"Ang ano doon mga ASEAN, APEC, okay lang yun kasi these are ministerial, parang fora na kailangan nandoon ang head of state. Pero yung pupunta ka sa Davos, Switzerland pero hindi ka naman G-7, andoon tayo sa G-7, parang, 'Ha? Hello?'," she said.

Marcos travelled to Switzerland on Jan. 15-20 this year to attend the World Economic Forum, during which he met with business executives.

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Responding to criticisms earlier this year, Marcos said the public should look into the return on investments, and not just the cost of his trips.

“The measure of success will be cost-benefit. How much effort did you put into it? It’s not just the money. It’s the time, the effort that goes into it...,” he said in January.

Going overseas is a fulfillment of the president's role as the country's salesman, said political analyst Edmund Tayao.

As of February, Marcos' trips yielded a total of P3.48 trillion or $62.926 billion worth of investment pledges covering 116 projects, Malacañang had said in a statement.

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The Presidential Communications Office (PCO said the commitments covered the President's trips to Indonesia ($8.48 billion), Singapore ($6.54 billion), United States ($3.84 billion), Thailand ($4.62 billion), Belgium ($2.20 billion), China ($24.239 billion), and Japan ($13 billion).

Of these, around P239 billion in investment commitments "have materialized" as of that month.

BILATERAL DEFENSE GUIDELINES, WEST PHILIPPINE SEA

It is important to take note of the establishment of the Bilateral Defense Guidelines between Manila and Washington, and how Marcos approached the issue on the West Philippine Sea, said Tayao,

The guidelines, signed during Marcos' visit in the US last May, reaffirmed the two countries' commitments under the Mutual Defense Treaty.

It also emphasized that the rules now cover the US and Philippines' respective Coast Guards in the Pacific, "including anywhere in the South China Sea."

"What the President is doing is resuscitating our relations with the US," Tayao said in a separate interview.

"It is not really an expansion but more of a revival of our previous relations with the US without necessarily undermining or doing away with the expanded foreign policy horizon or foreign relations that was established by the previous administration," he added.

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UP's Arugay said the Bilateral Defense Guidelines and the expanded access of American troops to military bases in the country under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) mean Marcos recognizes that the Philippines needs the US now.

"It indicates that for Marcos, the US is an indispensable and critical factor or pillar in imporving and safeguarding and promoting our national security. That is very clear," Arugay explained.

"The sustained interest—under here, mukhang sustained... Kumbaga yung progress in terms of alliance — management on both sides — I would even say is one of his good achievements in his first year in office," he said.

DLSU's De Castro said the country should not be alarmed that China continues to ignore Filipinos' actions and assertions of sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea.

"That is expected... We should just expect that China of course has a very expansive claim, China is bent on using coercion, pressure, and pulling its weight around. It is something that this administration will take into account," he said.

PH VEERING AWAY FROM CHINA?

Dennis Coronacion, another political analyst and international relations expert, said the Philippines' deeper ties with the US under Marcos was prompted by the country's experience under Duterte.

He noted that even if Manila beef up its relations with Beijing, the latter would still not recognize the former's rights in the West Philippine Sea.

"Siguro nakita niya na wala nang wisdom behind that kind of foreign policy. Kaya nag-iba siya ng direction na nais tahakin," Coronation, the outgoing head of the Philippine Political Science Association, said.

"Siguro based on experience, nakita niya na mas magiging kapani-pakinabang sa ating national interest kung ipaglalaban natin kung ano mang benefits na nakuha natin doon sa ruling ng permanent tribunal patungkol sa South China Sea," he added.

"I think mas sound 'yung ganoong policy, compared to the policy of his predecessor. Mas okay yun kasi nakita na natin lahat, kahit sundin mo pa ang ninanais ng China, hindi naman ito nagiging mabait sa atin."

Marcos had denied that his administration has pivoted away from China amid tensions in the West Philippine Sea as well as efforts by the Philippine government to strengthen its political and military ties with the United States.

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He had told new Filipino ambassadors that the country's foreign policy remains neutral.

De Castro said Marcos should be fair in dealing with China.

"China is very much aware of the cracks within the Philippine society," he said.

"Protecting our rights in the West Philippine Sea is also ensuring our security in the Luzon strait. It has to take a firm stand of course on strengthening the Armed Forces of the Philippines, security relations with the US and our security partners," he added.

For Arugay, Marcos is doing well in terms of managing Manila's relations with the US without antagonizingChina.

"Ang challenge dito is that, we still don't know how China will react in the coming years and coming months. And they might push Marcos to make crucial decisions and that might entail that itong pleasing both might no longer be a policy option for the Marcos administration," he said.