Attempt to take island by force needs similar campaign, experts say

Chinese experts say Russia’s rapid tactics in Ukraine are likely to be replicated in any PLA attack on Taiwan.

There has been international speculation that Beijing could seize the opportunity to take the self-ruled island while the attention of the United States and Europe is on the Ukraine crisis.

Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province and has never ruled out using force, if necessary, to return it to the mainland fold.

The Russian “blitz” into Ukraine was also seen in 1968 when Soviet forces invaded Czechoslovakia to crush the “Prague Spring”, according to Shanghai-based commentator Shi Lao.

Any PLA attempt to take the self-ruled island by force would also have to be a very quick campaign, although the crossing of the Taiwan Strait – 100km (160 miles) at its narrowest point – would add extra difficulties.

In an article in 2018, retired PLA lieutenant general Wang Hongguang outlined a scenario for an operation against Taiwan based on a rapid and brief campaign.

“In short, there will be at most three days left for outsiders like the Americans or the Japanese to assist Taiwan … otherwise they need not bother trying,” said Wang, a former vice-commander of the Nanjing Military Region which included Taiwan and the East China Sea.

In his article, Wang said the PLA would first conduct three waves of air strikes with missiles, long-range rockets and then air force bombers to target airports, naval facilities, air defence bases and radar and electronic positions.

Communications, power and transport hubs, bridges and tunnels, television and radio stations would all be included in the initial strikes, as well as a “decapitation” of the island’s political and commands.

Ground forces would follow up with landings at multiple locations, under cover of fire from the PLA’s rocket, navy and air forces. At the same time, paratroopers would be dropped to in-depth rear locations and rapidly advance to lay siege to and seize the capital Taipei.

There are stark similarities to Wang’s scenario and the invasion of Ukraine, which began early on Thursday morning, with hundreds of Russian missiles and other bombs fired at critical targets, just moments after President Vladimir Putin announced the “special operation” in a televised speech.

Short-range ballistic missiles were reported to be the Russians’ main weapon. There were also reports of medium-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, surface-to-air missiles, and sea-launched missiles from the Black Sea. At least 75 fixed-wing heavy and medium bombers were part of the initial attack on Ukraine.

Military helicopters later infiltrated at low altitude and paratroopers were reported to have landed in the outskirts of the capital Kyiv, while ground forces crossed the border and advanced on three fronts.

The Russian defence ministry said the first day ended with the disabling of 83 Ukrainian ground-based facilities, including at least 11 airfields, three command posts, a naval base and 18 radar stations from Ukraine’s anti-aircraft missile defence system.

Military commentator Song Zhongping said the PLA must have factored the possible intervention of the US into its calculations for an operation in Taiwan.

“Russia used its nuclear deterrence to prevent the US and Nato from direct involvement before launching the blitz at Ukraine with conventional weapons. Nuclear is the key here,” he said.

Comments by Putin in his speech launching the Ukraine invasion were widely interpreted as a threat that he would use nuclear weapons if other countries came to Kyiv’s aid.

Russia has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, with more than 6,000 warheads, over 500 intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and strategic bombers.

• Russia-Ukraine conflict may be China's chance to tighten grip in Asia: analyst

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