Russia-Ukraine conflict may be China's chance to tighten grip in Asia: analyst

ABS-CBN News

Posted at Feb 25 2022 12:04 PM

MANILA - Russia's attack on Ukraine might cause Europe and the US to "lose power and steam for containing China in Asia," an international security analyst said Friday.

At least 137 Ukrainian civilians and soldiers have died after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale ground invasion and air assault on Thursday.

Russia will likely take over the cities of Ukraine but will "lose on several levels," said Anders Corr, whose analytics firm publishes the Journal of Political Risk.

"China may see an opportunity to try to take Taiwan or even do more things in the West Philippine Sea in terms of controlling it even more than they already do," he told ANC's Headstart.

Nations can impose economic sanctions and cut Russia from most of the international financial systems, Corr said.

"We are likely to see Russia take over Kiev, it will actually probably lead to all of Ukraine basically but I don’t think they will be able to control every inch of territory. They're going to be very vulnerable form guerilla strikes form Ukrainian forces that are probably scattering at this point to hit them where and when they deem best," he said.

"I don’t really think they're going to win. I think Russia is going to lose in this conflict in so many levels." 

Putin is trying to "recreate the old Soviet Union," Corr said.

"All of those guys are NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) members now, if he tries to take all of those, he will find himself in a war with NATO," he said.

"I don’t think they're going to go for the Baltic States, that’s too much to bite off them. I think they will be able to take over the cities of Ukraine. It could be a it could be a very drawn out war like a year or even 10 years but I think it’s going to grind down Russia immensely. Russia will have to turn to China."

Corr also believes that the Russian people would "not put up with this for long."

"I’m hoping the Russian people somehow rise up against Putin and get rid of the guy and turn Russia into democracy. That would be an ideal outcome of this and I think we have that as an opportunity and a goal we should be looking forward to," he said.