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Analysis: How the weekend games affect the UAAP final 4 race

Analysis: How the weekend games affect the UAAP final 4 race

Rick Olivares

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Just to recap over the weekend (November 10-11) -- Adamson defeated University of the East 85-72, University of the Philippines prevailed 83-69 over University of Santo Tomas, Far Eastern University outlasted National University 79-74, and Ateneo set back La Salle, 71-62.

Ateneo remained atop the standings with an 11-2 record (the Blue Eagles play UST for their final assignment of the elimination round), while Adamson is second with a 10-3 record. La Salle is at third with an 8-5 slate, and FEU and UP are tied at 7-6. UST, out of the running two matches ago, is at 5-8 with NU and UE bringing up the rear with a respective 3-10 and 1-12.

Those stampeding Blue Eagles

The Ateneo Blue Eagles are one win away from a second round sweep. They avenged their first round losses to Adamson and FEU. They have everyone back from sick bay or injury and are firing on almost all cylinders as they are finding new and different heroes en route to a back-to-back title. They dealt La Salle a crushing loss as it prevented the Green Archers from challenging for the second seed and, depending on how the last games play out, possibly put DLSU in a precarious position of not making it at all.

What was impressive about Ateneo’s win is how its bench stepped up with its version of small ball when all the bigs were in foul trouble during the second period. When the Blue Eagles evened up matters at the half with a 14-6 spurt, they had taken La Salle’s best shot. Come the third period, they had seized control and the tempo.

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And speaking of new heroes, Will Navarro played well when Ateneo prevented La Salle from taking a huge lead. This second round has seen other players step up from Tyler Tio and SJ Belangel and now, Navarro. Imagine if Adrian Wong and Aaron Black find their groove.

Adamson got a huge assist from Ateneo.

The Soaring Falcons prevented the upset axe from falling when the UE Red Warriors hung tough in the first half. They got the huge win and the next day, the Blue Eagles’ win meant the second seed is theirs and a precious twice-to-beat advantage. They are going to want to win this game so they can also avoid La Salle in the final 4.

The Falcons' veterans have once more carried them along with the huge play of newcomer Jerom Lastimosa. And they are going to need them and more to fend off a FEU team that is back at full strength.

It is better for them that the lower seeds bludgeon each other and see where the chips may fall.

A loss that puts DLSU in a quandary

That loss to Ateneo hurt La Salle as it prevented the Green Archers from catching up with Adamson for the second seed (they bounced back last Saturday with a win over UE, 85-72) and it ended their second round tear. And it put them in a huge match this Wednesday with playoff implications against UP.

This win of Ateneo also helps Adamson as, should La Salle prevail over UP (which eliminated UST with an 83-69 win also last Saturday) to clinch the third seed, the Falcons will have the twice-to-beat advantage over the Green Archers. They do remember that final 4 match last year where they were murdered by the referees.

However, the Green Archers have to be pleased by the return to active duty by Taane Samuel who gave a good account of himself against Ateneo (8 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 block). He adds a lot of scoring, defense, and savvy inside for La Salle. Who knows where they’d be if he didn’t get injured during their season opener?

Right now, the Archers have to quickly put that loss behind them as they face UP which will go all out against them. It is a win-or-go-home scenario for UP.

FEU holds its fate

Except for the fact that the Tamaraws play Adamson in their final game. They finally got Ken Tuffin to break out of his offensive funk as he has done well in the last two games. And the win over NU saw the return of Prince Orizu although in limited minutes.

Expect the Tamaraws too to go all out versus Adamson. The last thing they need are complications and a play-off, say, with La Salle, for the fourth seed.

It is win or go home time for UP

Once more, UP’s season has come down to a last game. At least the Fighting Maroons are in the fight. Expect them to go all out in this match. Could this possibly be the last game for Paul Desiderio, Diego Dario, Jarrell Lim, and Gelo Vito in a UP jersey? You bet they want to prolong their season. But it won’t be easy against a La Salle team that prior to its setback against Ateneo was the other team with a win streak. They will want to bounce back and avoid any complications.

Should they win, they’ll take the third seed.

Huge gut check time for the Fighting Maroons.

For more sports coverage, visit the ABS-CBN Sports website.

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