La Niña onset may be delayed further to last quarter of 2024: PAGASA | ABS-CBN

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La Niña onset may be delayed further to last quarter of 2024: PAGASA

La Niña onset may be delayed further to last quarter of 2024: PAGASA

Ariel Rojas,

ABS-CBN News

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Rain pours on pedestrians in Quezon City on October 11, 2020 amid the general community quarantine. Mark Demayo, ABS-CBN News/FileRain pours on pedestrians in Quezon City on October 11, 2020 amid the general community quarantine. Mark Demayo, ABS-CBN News/File

MANILA -- The start of La Niña may be further delayed to the last quarter of 2024, state weather bureau PAGASA said Tuesday on its La Niña Watch.

This, as climate models project 55 percent probability of the climate phenomenon emerging during the October-November-December 2024 quarter and persisting through the first quarter of 2025.

PAGASA initially said that La Niña may start during the June-July-August season in March. In its climate forum on June 26, the high uncertainty of climate forecasts led state climatologists to adjust their projection between September and November.

Currently, ENSO-neutral conditions—or the absence of El Niño and La Niña—prevail over the tropical region of the Pacific Ocean and may last until the August-September-October season.

ENSO or El Niño-Southern Oscillation is a naturally occurring climate pattern observed through changes in wind intensity and direction and sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific, with global climatic impacts.

El Niño is the warm phase of the ENSO and results in less rainfall and drier conditions in the Philippines, with tropical cyclones forming farther away.

La Niña, on the other hand, is the ENSO cold phase that leads to above normal rains and tropical cyclones forming closer to the country.

The Department of Agriculture previously said that La Niña poses a more severe impact to agriculture, to which PAGASA climatologists agreed.

The country is still reeling from the impacts of a strong El Niño episode that lasted for almost a year. Nine provinces still experienced drought in June, when the El Niño ended.

During its peak, 46 provinces experienced drought, with scores of local government units declaring a state of calamity, while agricultural damage reached P10 billion.

This July, the weather bureau forecast two to three tropical cyclones to form or enter the Philippine area of responsibility.

Most of Luzon and Eastern Visayas are projected to receive below-normal rains. The rest of the country may get near-normal precipitation, except in Davao del Sur and Davao Occidental where above-normal rains are possible.

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