La Niña onset may be delayed: PAGASA | ABS-CBN
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La Niña onset may be delayed: PAGASA
La Niña onset may be delayed: PAGASA
Rain pours on pedestrians in Quezon City on October 11, 2020 amid the general community quaraintine. Mark Demayo, ABS-CBN News/File
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MANILA — La Niña may start at a later time this year, state climatologists said at a virtual climate forum Wednesday.
MANILA — La Niña may start at a later time this year, state climatologists said at a virtual climate forum Wednesday.
The transition to La Niña was previously forecast between July and September.
The transition to La Niña was previously forecast between July and September.
There is a 50 percent likelihood of La Niña developing by September-October-November season, attributed to high uncertainty in climate forecasts.
There is a 50 percent likelihood of La Niña developing by September-October-November season, attributed to high uncertainty in climate forecasts.
"Possibility of La Niña possibly developing in September-October-November 2024, in which 50% lang yung chance, but [the] model shows high uncertainty in ENSO forecast at this time of the year. Bakit po? Kagagaling lang natin sa strong El Niño... ENSO-neutral conditions [ngayon] so ibig sabihin very well-mixed ang ating karagatan -- napakaliit ng temperature gradient or differences ng ating buong karagatan," Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Solis explained in the forum.
"Possibility of La Niña possibly developing in September-October-November 2024, in which 50% lang yung chance, but [the] model shows high uncertainty in ENSO forecast at this time of the year. Bakit po? Kagagaling lang natin sa strong El Niño... ENSO-neutral conditions [ngayon] so ibig sabihin very well-mixed ang ating karagatan -- napakaliit ng temperature gradient or differences ng ating buong karagatan," Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Solis explained in the forum.
(There is a 50 percent possibility of La Niña developing in September-October-November 2024 but there is high uncertainty in climate forecast around this time of the year. Why? A strong El Niño just ended so the equatorial Pacific is currently under ENSO-neutral conditions. This means the ocean is very well-mixed with little difference in temperature.)
(There is a 50 percent possibility of La Niña developing in September-October-November 2024 but there is high uncertainty in climate forecast around this time of the year. Why? A strong El Niño just ended so the equatorial Pacific is currently under ENSO-neutral conditions. This means the ocean is very well-mixed with little difference in temperature.)
A weak La Niña is most likely to prevail by the last quarter of the year through the first quarter of 2025.
A weak La Niña is most likely to prevail by the last quarter of the year through the first quarter of 2025.
"Base sa (based on) model predictions ng (of) SST (sea surface temperature) anomaly, we see a weak La Niña towards the end of the year, for now," Solis said.
"Base sa (based on) model predictions ng (of) SST (sea surface temperature) anomaly, we see a weak La Niña towards the end of the year, for now," Solis said.
Currently, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral condition or the absence of El Niño and La Niña is observed over the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean. Majority of global climate models project this condition will persist through August-October period.
Currently, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral condition or the absence of El Niño and La Niña is observed over the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean. Majority of global climate models project this condition will persist through August-October period.
El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cold phases of the naturally occurring ENSO.
El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cold phases of the naturally occurring ENSO.
Changes in wind speed and direction and sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific drive the back and forth swinging between El Niño and La Niña. The ENSO-neutral phase marks the transition between the two.
Changes in wind speed and direction and sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific drive the back and forth swinging between El Niño and La Niña. The ENSO-neutral phase marks the transition between the two.
PAGASA declared the end of a very strong El Niño in early June.
PAGASA declared the end of a very strong El Niño in early June.
At its peak, 46 provinces experienced drought with almost 200,000 hectares of land affected.
At its peak, 46 provinces experienced drought with almost 200,000 hectares of land affected.
The Department of Agriculture reported more than P10-billion damage to agriculture, leading to almost 400 local government units, 11 provinces, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) declaring states of calamity.
The Department of Agriculture reported more than P10-billion damage to agriculture, leading to almost 400 local government units, 11 provinces, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) declaring states of calamity.
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