Crewmembers of the US Coast Guard Cutter Munro salute a Philippine Coast Guard vessel transiting alongside the Munro in the West Philippine Sea, Aug. 31, 2021. Coast Guard members aboard the Munro and the Philippine Coast Guard participated in bilateral operations and exercises that included small boat operations and multi-vessel maneuvering. US Coast Guard Petty Officer 3rd Class Aidan Cooney/Handout.

MANILA (UPDATED) — The United States’ stance on the West Philippine Sea issue will remain the same even with the election of a new president, an analyst said on Monday.

Gregory Poling, director and senior fellow of the Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), believes Washington will continue to help Manila deter Chinese hostility in Philippine waters.

Poling noted however that US Vice President Kamala Harris may be more invested in the issue than former US President Donald Trump.

“I worry a little bit that Donald Trump himself probably doesn't feel as invested as Kamala Harris would,” said Poling.

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“Harris came, she spoke on the Teresa Magbanua and Palawan. She clearly gets the alliance. Trump, in his first four years, never said the words South China Sea. It was always his Cabinet officials. But assuming that we get similar Cabinet officials, I would expect a similar policy,” he added.

Poling also sees Harris continuing the Biden administration’s approach of networking alliances, while Trump would go about it bilaterally.

“The approach of the Biden administration has been more successful in networking alliances, so getting the Japanese and the Australians and the Europeans together in support of the Philippines. Just look at the number of European states who endorsed the 2016 arbitration, for instance. So that part was not as successful under Trump, because the Trump administration pursues things more unilaterally and bilaterally,” he said.

In either case, Poling said, there is no quick solution to the West Philippine Sea conflict.

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“I know it's it's unsatisfying for all sides that we have this constant low level tension, this constant risk of escalation. If it's not Ayungin Shoal, it'll be Sabina Shoal, it'll be Pag-Asa. But that's not going to go away… As long as Xi Jinping is President of China, Beijing is not going to abandon its claims, and it's not going to stop trying to bully the Philippines and other smaller neighbors,” he said.

China has accused the Philippines of acting as a proxy for the US, which it has also accused of destabilizing the region. It has insisted that issues in the South China Sea should be settled by countries in the region.

Activist Renato Reyes, president of Bagong Alyansang Makabayan, said on social media that "US foreign policy regarding the Philippines will remain largely unchanged" regardless of who wins the US elections.

BAYAN opposes US presence in the country, warning that it could escalate tensions with China and risk the Philippines being caught in the middle of the US-China rivalry.

"The US wants to be the main economic and military power and has sought dominance in this region. China is a rising imperialist power with its own economic and military agenda threatening US economic interests. Whether it's Harris or Trump, the economic and military contradictions between the two superpowers will remain," Reyes said.

MILITARY TREATY NO 'MAGIC BULLET'

For Poling, invoking the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) between the US and the Philippines also isn’t the “magic bullet” that some may consider it to be, unless it’s an all-out war that they want.

“It's a tool that's meant to deter Chinese aggression, and it works,” he said.

He said that even though the Philippines has seen escalation by China in the West Philippine Sea — including physical assault on Philippine Navy personnel — there have been no fatalities and Filipino resupply missions have generally been successful.

“One of the reasons for that was because China was unwilling to escalate to overt military force because of the alliance,” added Poling.

On June 17, 2024, Philippine and Chinese forces figured in a violent clash in the West Philippine Sea after the former's resupply mission to BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin shoal was intercepted by the China Coast Guard (CCG).

Wielding spears and knives, the CCG was seen on video destroying two motorboats, as well as the personal belongings of PN seamen, and confiscated some of their firearms. One Philippine Navy seaman even lost a finger during the encounter.

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Nevertheless, Poling said contigency talks on the MDT, should it be invoked, will need to continue.

“Certainly, in private, the US and Philippine governments for the last at least three years, have spent a lot of time talking about what kind of triggers there would be for the MDT and, maybe more importantly, how we deter China before it gets to that point? How do we deal with things like the militia that are meant to stay below the level of triggering the MDT?” he said.

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