MANILA — The provinces of Batangas, Cavite, and Oriental Mindoro are forecast to experience drought by the end of December 2023, PAGASA said during its monthly climate forum.

Drought occurs when there is more than sixty percent reduction in average rainfall for three consecutive months.

The outlook is based on the actual rainfall observed from July to November, while a strong El Niño grips the tropical Pacific Ocean. Strong El Niño occurs when the observed sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific is higher than the normal conditions by at least 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The current El Niño episode may intensify further in the coming months and continue until the second quarter of 2024.

Twenty provinces may also experience dry spell, namely Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Aurora, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Palawan, Misamis Occidental, and Sulu.

Meanwhile, seven provinces are forecast to experience dry conditions by the end of the year, including Abra, Ilocos Norte, Batanes, Bataan, Zambales, Metro Manila, Occidental Mindoro, and Antique.

Dry spell happens when there is below normal rainfall for three consecutive months while dry condition is caused by two consecutive months of below normal rainfall.

This December, below normal rainfall is forecast over Northern and Central Luzon and the western section of Southern Luzon while the rest of the country will have near normal rains.

Up to two tropical cyclones may also form inside or enter the Philippine area of responsibility before the year ends. Most December storms make landfall over Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, and Caraga.

There have been 10 storms in the Philippines this year so far -- just half of the annual average of 19 to 20.

Tropical storms contribute significantly to the country's annual rainfall, along with other systems such as the southwest monsoon or habagat, the shear line, and the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ).

For more updates, visit the ABS-CBN weather center.

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