MANILA (UPDATE) – Typhoon Rolly is expected to make landfall between Central Luzon and Quezon province on Sunday evening or Monday morning, with a potential to bring disastrous conditions, PAGASA said Friday.
The typhoon, with international name Goni, was last seen 1,185 kilometers east of Central Luzon, the state weather bureau said in its 7 a.m. press briefing.
Rolly is currently packing maximum sustained winds of 140 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center, with gusts of up to 170 kph.
“Hindi natin inaalis ang possibility na mag-intensify pa siya pero nasa typhoon category lang ‘yung nakikita based sa ating track,” weather specialist Ezra Bulquerin told Teleradyo’s “Sakto”.
(We are not discounting the possibility that it would intensify further but it could only reach into typhoon category based on its track.)
In anticipation of the arrival of strong breeze to near-gale conditions due to Rolly, tropical cyclone wind signal (TCWS) number 1 may be raised over several provinces in the Bicol Region on Saturday.
As Rolly is expected to further intensify, PAGASA may also issue TCWS number 3 and 4, which are associated with destructive typhoon-force winds.
Moving westward at 20 kph, the typhoon is currently churning the Philippine Sea and may hit land at peak intensity of 165 kph to 185 kph.
"May kalayuan pa ang distansiya nito sa lupa. Marami pa siyang oras para lumakas. Nasa dagat pa ho siya at favorable ang kaniyang environment condition for intensification,” weather specialist Loriedin De La Cruz said in a press briefing.
(It is still far from [Philippine] landmass. It still has enough time to gain strength. It’s still hovering over the sea and it has favorable environment condition to intensify.)
The United States Navy-United States Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center (US-JTWC) had said Rolly may intensify into a super typhoon before its landfall over Luzon.
The US-JTWC classifies typhoons with wind speeds of at least 130 knots, which are equivalent to a Category 4 storm in the Saffir-Simpson scale - as super typhoons. Its readings are based on 1-minute average measurements of sustained winds.
This is different from the tropical cyclone intensity scale used by PAGASA, which makes readings based on 10-minute average measurements of sustained winds.
As a result, the US-JTWC's wind readings are higher than PAGASA's measurements.
On Friday, the typhoon's trough or extension will bring cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over the Visayas, Bicol Region, Northern Mindanao and Caraga.
Meanwhile, PAGASA is also monitoring another tropical depression outside of PAR, located 2,320 kilometers east of Mindanao.
The new weather disturbance, with international name Atsani, is packing maximum sustained winds of 65 kph, with gusts of up to 80 kph. It is forecast to enter PAR on Sunday or Monday.
It will be locally named Siony, the 19th tropical cyclone to enter the country this year.
The tropical depression is not likely to affect any parts of the country, Bulquerin said.
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