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MAYNILA — Labing-apat sa 17 local government units (LGUs) sa Metro Manila ang nakapagtala ng negative growth rate sa COVID-19 cases sa nakalipas na linggo, ayon sa OCTA Research Group.

Ayon kay Dr. Guido David, OCTA fellow, hindi pa ito nangangahulugang pababa na ang trend ng mga kaso, pero maituturing ito na good indicator.

"The green trend line actually show a decrease. In fact, the number of cases on average right now for the past 7 days is 4,200. It's about 11 percent lower compared to the previous week when we were averaging more than 5,000. Two weeks ago, it was about 5,200 on average. That was about the peak," ani David.

May bahagyang pagbaba rin sa bilang ng COVID-19 cases sa National Capital Region (NCR) sa nakalipas na dalawang linggo.

Batay sa datos ng ABS-CBN Data Analytics, nasa 4,600 ang average cases sa nakaraang 14 na araw.

"It's still high, but at least we're seeing a decrease. But if we compare across NCR cities, it can also get tricky because these cities are really interconnected. But I guess, I can point out two factors. One is the impact of the localized lockdowns and then the testing and tracing that are being done. Second, for me, it's really the timing. If we remember, cases started to increase first in Pasay so they were able to introduce interventions earlier and that's why we're seeing a decrease now," ani Edson Guido, head ng ABS-CBN Data Analytics.

Bumaba rin ang reproduction number o bilang ng mga nahahawa ng bawat isang taong may COVID-19.

Mula Abril 16 hanggang 22, nasa 0.98 o wala pang 1 tao. Pero maaari pa rin itong tumaas.

"It's not a stable trend yet. It's just over the past week we're seeing this reproduction number of around 1," ani David ng OCTA.

Kaya naman para sa OCTA, dapat agresibong pababain ng pamahalaan ang reproduction number, at mapanatili itong nasa less than 1 sa loob ng ilang linggo.

"Because you have a 27-day confinement period for COVID-19 survivors. So if one patient goes in, if they survive, they will be in that bed for about one month. So you have to sustain the [reproduction number] below 1 for at least several weeks. And this will take careful planning with the length of the MECQ," ani Fr. Nicanor Austriaco, isa pang OCTA fellow.

Ayon kay Dr. Michael Tee, isa pang fellow ng OCTA, full capacity pa rin ang NCR hospitals, batay sa pinakahuling datos ng Philippine Red Cross noong Huwebes.

Ang St. Luke's Medical Center sa Taguig, 104 percent ang admission rate, habang 101 percent naman sa Caloocan City Medical Center.

Wala pa rito ang mga nakapilang pasyente sa emergency room at mga nasa bahay na naghihintay mapayagang pumunta sa ER.

—Ulat ni Arra Perez, ABS-CBN News

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