MANILA — El Niño, a weather phenomenon characterized by below-normal rainfall, could develop in the second half of 2023, PAGASA said on Tuesday.

PAGASA assistant weather services chief Chris Perez said El Niño could start in July, with its effects felt by August or September.

"Mga buwan po ng July, inaasahan natin posibleng mag-start but by the end of the year 'yung projection natin doon mararanasan 'yung epekto ng El Niño... Not necessarily pagdating ng July ay kulang tayo sa tubig," Perez said in a televised public briefing.

(We expect it to start around July, but our projection is that we will experience the effects of El Niño by the end of the year. It does not necessarily mean that we will lack water come July.)

"May kaunti pang lag effect 'yan, then possibly by August and September magsisimula na tayong makaranas ng below normal rainfall. Kahit pa magsimula 'yung panahon ng El Niño season possibly by July, may mga lugar pa rin pong pwedeng makaranas ng near normal to above normal rainfall conditions po," he added.

(That has a little lag effect, then possibly by August and September we will start to experience below normal rainfall. Even if the El Niño season starts by July, there are still places that could experience near normal to above normal rainfall conditions.)

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WHAT TO EXPECT DURING EL ÑINO

During El Niño, the water level in reservoirs could go down due to less rainfall, Perez said.

"Ang projection po natin sa water level (sa dams) during the neutral months March, April, and May ay patuloy na bababa, unless magkakaroon tayo ng bagyo na matatapat na magbubuhos ng maraming tubig dito sa mga water reservoir," the official said.

(Our projection is that water level in the dams during the neutral months of March, April, and May would continue to go down, unless we have a typhoon that will dump a lot of water into the reservoirs.)

A reduction in water supply could in turn affect the agriculture and power generation sectors, he noted.

"Bukod pa diyan, kung magiging madalang 'yung weather systems na magpapaulan, makakaranas talaga tayo ng mainit na temperatura, daytime temperatures," Perez added.

(Because there would be fewer weather systems bringing rains, we will experience high temperatures, daytime temperatures.)

"Patuloy 'yung pakikipag-coordinate natin sa iba't ibang ahensiya ng pamahalaan at maging ibang private sectors para mapaghandaan natin itong paparating na El Niño."

(We are coordinating with various government agencies and even the private sector so that we can prepare for the upcoming El Niño.)

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