MANILA - The National Capital Region may record fewer than 1,000 daily COVID-19 cases by mid-February, according to OCTA Research on Monday, which may bring its moderate-risk classification one rung down to low-risk.

"The worst is probably over for most of the country because cases have peaked or are peaking," OCTA's Guido David said in an online forum.

The University of the Philippines (UP) Pandemic Response Team also said Sunday that new daily infections in Metro Manila are declining, with the group's Jomar Rabajante saying, "Baka mag-less than 1,000 [cases] tayo in February."

(We may even reach less than 1,000 new cases in February.)

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David said heavily-populated areas such as Cebu and Baguio have already recorded a decline in cases.

Meanwhile, the areas that are still on an upward trend include Bukidnon, Camiguin, Cotabato, Davao De Oro, Davao del Norte, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental, Maguindanao, Negros Occidental, Sarangani, South Cotabato, and Sultan Kudarat.

"The surge happened later in these provinces, that's why they are still at an accelerating stage," David explained.

"The surge has already matured and is now on a downward trend in many other provinces especially in Visayas and Luzon," he added.

But David clarified that the overall number of cases nationwide may not be affected by the upward trend in provinces that have yet to peak.

"Kasi konti na lang sila. Kumabaga mas maraming pababa na, kaysa yung pataas. Yung pataas ay konti na lang. Based sa overall numbers, probably by February, Valentine's, we'll be down to 10,000 cases per day in the entire country, and lower by the end of the month," he said.

(There are fewer provinces on an upward trend than those with decreasing cases.)

Lawmakers have criticized OCTA Research for the accuracy of its COVID-19 projections. The group said it uses data from the Department of Health.

Since late December, the Philippines has seen a quick rise in new COVID-19 cases, a wave of infections driven by the highly contagious omicron variant.

As of Sunday, exactly two years since it confirmed its first COVID-19 case, the country has recorded a total of 3,545,680 infections after logging an additional 16,953.

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Almost 58.8 million people in the Philippines have been fully vaccinated against the respiratory illness, while more than 60.3 million others have received their first dose. Over 7.3 million booster doses have also been administered.

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