With what’s happening in the 2022 Presidential elections, all seems to indicate a return to old Philippine politics. We can talk about the more substantive issues of the environment, of climate change and sustainable development, of decentralization and local governance, and even feminism and other post-modern ideological issues. Stripped naked, however, it all just boils down to a tug of war of prominent names in politics and Philippine society.

Take note of familiar strategies employed by political groups. One in particular has been a trademark: to label all those against them as insincere, incompetent, corrupt, and even unpatriotic. Such a high horse, even demagoguery, but it worked well before and for a long time. Considering especially the assassination of Ninoy Aquino, the foremost opposition figure during the Marcos regime, which remains unresolved up to today. This murder mystery drew the country’s attention to the prolonged stay in power of former President Marcos, and led to the 1986 Edsa revolution. The leitmotif then logically was to eschew autocracy and abuse in government, as everyone celebrated the return of democracy.

There were innumerable accomplishments of the late President Marcos, many we still use today. To my mind however, it was just right for the late president to vigorously undertake the building of infrastructures. It was, after all, the age of modernization, even for many countries. Note especially that many were just beginning as independent sovereign countries, building not only much-needed infrastructure but also much-needed public institutions. The latter, of course, are the fundamentals we failed to put up. We were supposed to be the first Republic in this part of the world, but our neighbors knew the essentials of governance more than we did. Notable infrastructure was built, but the initiatives to evolve better governance were not enough to effectively do away with elite politics.

Of course, governments and leaders in the region were not just busy in their own backyards during that critical period. The communist threat was real and the international community had to act accordingly. We were one with many countries in transition after colonialism, which included among others the recovery of territories lost in the course of the colonial period. All of these important priorities however only highlighted the inherent weakness or even absence of our public institutions.

We had the advantage then, diplomacy-wise; as has been noted, we were the first Republic. Supposedly, we were ahead in developing our public institutions, including our ability to project ourselves in the international arena. And project we did, and the international community responded positively. We were instrumental in the formation of MaPhilIndo, the precursor of ASEAN. Just like any initiative however, no matter how noble, everything was just about who was in charge and who was against. No amount of national interest was enough to enjoin our political leaders to cooperate. So, the efforts to recover Sabah for example all but failed.

This kind of politics was supposed to be overhauled by Marcos’ “New Society” agenda. Noting especially the threat of communism then, especially with the US amplifying the threat not only in the Philippines and in the region but internationally. The thought of a New Society in other words made sense, and just like the aggressive development of infrastructure, it was consistent with the call of the times as it was in most countries. While many successfully built and strengthened their political and governance systems--countries like South Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand and Indonesia--our efforts did not reach the same objective.

The assassination of the leading political opposition then, Ninoy Aquino, all the more added to the botched effort to institutionalize political and governmental institutions. Instead, the already self-evident shortcomings were amplified. The muffling of the opposition and desaparecidos, all supposedly justified by the far-reaching political reforms intended by the New Society project, all but served as indictment of the regime. The 1986 Edsa revolution therefore became inevitable

The Edsa revolution renewed the call for reforms, especially since the return of democracy was an emotional juncture in the country’s history. Many of all those who fought against the dictatorship found themselves elected into office. As it would turnout however, all the revolution gave to the people was the fleeting feeling of euphoria. Just a few years after the uprising, the problems of governance once again took centerstage. The much-anticipated changes in politics and governance were all frustrated. Many experts then looked backed and considered what happened in Edsa in 1986 as nothing more than a “restoration” (of the old elite politics) and not a revolution.

It was heartening to note however that the people did not just give up. We tried to make do with the little that we have, the power to vote, that we experimented with our choices. In the 1995 elections, we started electing known personalities in show business. Instead of electing those with the usual qualifications like lawyers and professionals as had been in previous elections, the people voted for those who were popular for the roles they played in movies and tv shows. The height of this theme of a popular choice reached its height with the election of former President Erap Estrada in 1998. Anyone and everyone who made their names in show business were sure winners, from local to nationally-elected positions. It was at that time that the Senate had the most members coming from show business.

Only a year into office, then-President Erap faced scandals one after another, and before the midterm election had to leave Malacanang in another Edsa uprising. After that, many of those elected into office because of their popularity in show business and did not perform well were no longer elected back into office. The people must have learned that non-performers, regardless of popularity, should go. Former men in uniform, especially those who rose to prominence as leaders of coups d’état or fighting it became the favorite flavor of the electorate. After that, people have been electing a good mix, especially now, including those who made a name in business.

All these struggles to make the most out of the political setup we have, to my mind, contributed to the return of the Marcos name to national prominence. I don’t think we have forgotten what actually transpired during the dictatorship. We can all argue that the current generation don't remember martial law as they were not yet born then. If we determine however how much of the current electorate now are too young to remember at least halfway towards martial law, it would show that it would not be more than half of the total. So, what explains the overwhelming support of former Senator Bongbong Marcos now running for president?

The only logical explanation is the frustrated expectations of substantial reforms after the Edsa revolution. There have been two Aquinos already elected into office; much like the first, the second came with much expectations, only to turn out to be simply more of the same elitist politics. Perhaps, if there were not many serious blunders by the previous administration, many would likely consider other candidates, including Vice President Leni Robredo instead of Marcos Jr. The public’s frustration with the prevailing kind of politics however is traced to many if not all the leaders after Edsa 1986.

Cory Aquino led the Edsa uprising in 1986 and replaced the strongman Marcos. As expected, expectations were high. The many challenges to her presidency contributed to the difficulty to actually govern that the people must have thought, there simply was not enough time then to have better governance. At least that’s the way I see it: the only time the administration candidate won to take over the reins of government happened when we elected the defense secretary of Ms. Aquino, former President FVR. There were many notable reforms introduced under his administration, including a series of landmark legislations, many we still enjoy today and used by succeeding administrations. All these will eventually prove to be still much needed in order to effect far-reaching changes in politics.

In 1998, the people then elected a candidate with a different lineage so to speak, former actor Erap Estrada. He could not finish his term because of alleged indiscretions in office, and another Edsa took place and again with so much expectations. Then Vice President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo took over, served the remaining term of former President Erap and was elected to serve a full term amounting to more than 9 years as president. There could have been notable milestones with those 9 long years, but it seemed like a curse that just like previous administrations, there were scandals that ruined supposed achievements.

This led to the election of Noynoy Aquino who had been a senator only for 3 years. The tremendous sympathy generated by the passing of his mother, former President Cory, catapulted the son to be the frontrunner. His campaign against abuses in government, particularly against the reported scandals of the outgoing administration of GMA, had him handily elected to office in 2010. Expectations, needless to say, yet again were high as in all previous elections, only to be frustrated once again.

President Duterte was an unlikely candidate. The first time his name was brought to the public as a possible challenger to the presidency he was rating only 5 percent, what with being a long time local chief executive. It was not until December of 2015 that he started to pick up but only with a minimal increase to 9 percent. When the debates started in February however, his numbers went up to 20 per cent. It was the first time that the public saw him speak and engage not only the other candidates but also the public. So, from a virtual unknown, he instantly rose to popularity. As elections approached, the increment in his numbers were consistent reaching more than 30 percent, leading him to the presidency. He must have been seen as the odd man out and therefore represented something that would differ from all the previous chief executives.

So, the lingering question now is, why Marcos? He is, after all, still from the same rank of elites in politics. The answer there is simply the kind of politics that we have, which is simply about personalities. VP Leni herself was aware that she would have to offer herself as an “independent” candidate, hoping she could shake off being identified with the Liberals and the previous administration. With the way things are going, it’s quite obvious it simply did not work. The others on the other hand may be new names but the people working with them have all been with the previous administrations as well. Thanks to the failure to put in place far-reaching political reforms, the choices are limited and the Marcos name is the closest there is to the idea of veering away from the kind of politics we have always had after 1986.

Even if we stick to the argument that the former senator does not have a degree compared to the other challengers, it remains insignificant to many. The public is aware of his having been a governor, a member of the House of Representatives, and a senator. The way he speaks only exhibits confidence, while there have been limitations to how the other contenders present themselves. Leni may be a lawyer and before that graduated with a degree in economics. For some reason however, her limitations in discussions have drowned the significance of degrees and titles earned.

Marcos Jr. not attending some of the interviews and debates did not matter either; he attended some anyway and these have likely given enough previews of his character as a person and likely leadership. If he did not attend any of these public events, then that would be an entirely different question. Note that in the controversial 2004 Presidential elections, the late Fernando Poe Jr. was leading in all early surveys. He refused to take part in any debate however despite efforts to have him face President GMA in a public discourse. His numbers then declined consistently that the results of the elections favored the incumbent. The public of course accepted it, until the Hello Garci scandal surfaced. Still, the public must have had enough of popular uprisings in Edsa that GMA would turn out to be one of the past presidents to accomplish much and finish her elected term.

We have over 2 weeks left before we troop to the voting precincts. All surveys suggest that we have already made our choices. For me however, those choices can still change. How much change however is the more important question. Another is whether the second in rank can pull some numbers from the one leading. It will just be not enough to get all the numbers of the other candidates to pull through a surprise win.

If the surveys will be the reference as in all previous elections, there is no other reference we have anyway, then we can only anticipate that the conclusion is already made. Of course, another black swan can change all these, but I will just keep my fingers crossed that if there’ll be such, it will not be that significant to set us back more than the pandemic already has.

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