US think-tank warns PH vs forging deal with China | ABS-CBN

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US think-tank warns PH vs forging deal with China

US think-tank warns PH vs forging deal with China

Ron Gagalac,

ABS-CBN News

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Johnson Reef or Mabini Reef. CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative

A Washington DC-based think-tank cautions the Philippines against negotiating with China and striking a deal that might create imbalances in diplomatic relations along the ASEAN region, and a defense strategy expert warns of a military conflict if no deals will be reached.

Murray Hiebert, senior advisor and deputy director for Southeast Asia program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said China is poised to fight out its claim on the South China Sea head on with other claimant countries.

"China is determined to keep its position as the dominant player in the South China Sea. I'm not sure that there is much to negotiate," Hiebert said.

He said it will be tough for the Philippines to bargain by itself, considering that the country is currently in a very weak position to demand anything from China after its falling out with the US, while turning its allegiance to Beijing.

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"It's gonna be tough especially for the Philippines to bargain by itself, it's in a very weak position. I think by working with Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei, I think you could have gotten more. But I think dealing with himself, the Chinese are very good at this stuff," he said.

MORE HARDWARE

The CSIS Southeast Asia Program director said the next thing China could do is build more infrastructure and send more military hardware to tighten its claim on these islands in the west Philippine sea.

"Move more airplanes, move more ships to the reclaimed islands, but I think China is gonna try to keep it a little bit quiet this year," he said,

"Taiwan and North Korea will be a bigger issue for China and the United States."

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Hiebert also said that it will be good for the Philippines to have the basic backing of ASEAN, and work together in tandem with the Vietnamese and Malaysians.

"You'll be on a much stronger position, because the Chinese have a lot more at stake with Vietnam and Malaysia. Far more investments, far more business. What can the Philippines bargain with the Chinese?" he said.

NEW WORLD ORDER

Dr. Marvin Ott, strategic defense expert from John Hopkins University in Washington DC, meanwhile, believes that China is now on the verge of creating a new international order.

"China will be the dominant power in Asia. The US will respect that. The US will recognize that the USA-Asia is over, and the Chinese day has arrived," Ott said.

"If I'm Chinese, that's what the Philippines should agree to, and if you do, we'll all live happily ever after."

Ott said it is unlikely that military conflict will arise if and when US President Donald Trump continues with the foreign policy of the Obama administration that there should be freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. But Ott does not discount the possibility that a war could erupt in the islands being claimed by Beijing.

"It will be so destructive to both sides, and because both sides have such tremendous relationship. The economic ties between the two are just massive. But when I say dangerous, yes, it has a potential for military clash," Ott said.

Ott explained that the US response to China's increasing building of islands and patrols has been what the Pentagon calls the "freedom of navigation operations" or FONOPS, where the US deploys naval ships along the maritime territory that China is claiming.

"The idea was the Chinese will be impressed and therefore would stand back but the Chinese have not been impressed and they have not stood back," he said.

"My interpretation is that the FONOPS, the freedom of navigation operations, have not been effective in terms of having the strategic security outcome that the planners have hoped. Now you have to think of what's next, and that's where it gets very tough and very dangerous," he added.

Ott said the tarnished relations between US and the Philippines, as evident in the tirades of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte against former US President Barack Obama and the Americans, undermined the defense strategies of several Asian countries and that of the US.

"We have replaced in a very short time a very high level of strategic certainty and collaboration, with a huge level of uncertainty, and this is against the backdrop of an increasing Chinese military aggressiveness, and that uncertainty becomes dangerous. This is a very dangerous situation," he said.

"If I'm Filipino and in Manila, I have a very large question in my mind whether President Duterte understands what are the geo-political interests of the Philippines actually are in the South China Sea," he added.

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