MANILA—Thousands of weapons used in the decades-long Moro insurgency in the southern Philippines will be decommissioned beginning Saturday, a crucial commitment by former rebels under a peace deal that gave them a new autonomous region in Mindanao.

• Murad: 12,000 MILF fighters to start decommissioning

But a new study cautioned against implementing this phase of the normalization process at this time, saying ex-combatants might be lured by criminal groups and violent extremists for their “highly marketable skills.”

“The threat of defection to other armed groups is real, and any shift to livelihoods or employment in the bureaucracy cannot replace the loss of power or prestige that combatants currently enjoy,” said peace advocacy group International Alert in its 2019 report.

President Rodrigo Duterte is set to preside over the ceremonial decommissioning of guns and combatants in Sultan Kudarat, Maguindanao on Sept. 7.

Another ceremonial turnover of a handful of firearms also took place in 2015.

By March next year, some 12,000 fighters comprising 30 percent of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front’s (MILF) total force are expected to have been decommissioned.

MILF chairman Murad Ebrahim said the ceremony would “symbolise” that his group was “already a partner of the government in the peace and order campaign.”

Aside from decomissioning, the normalization phase would also disband private armed groups in the area, he said.

BEYOND USE

But Murad, who now heads the interim Bangsamoro government, could not yet say exactly how many weapons would be “put beyond use.”

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Guns issued to the MILF’s Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces accounted for around 7,000, but those privately owned by the rebels were yet to be determined, he said.

Weapons in the possession of MILF sympathizers will have to be identified as well, he added.

Murad said authorities were looking into additional benefits for MILF combatants and civilians whose firearms would be decommissioned.

The absence of a clear number of weapons highlighted the enduring problem of illicit firearms prevalent in Muslim Mindanao, said Francisco Lara Jr., International Alert’s senior adviser.

“Do we expect 40,000 weapons to be surrendered? That is not clear,” he told ABS-CBN News.

“The number of weapons that is retired will not neutralize the possession of firearms by the same combatants who surrendered these firearms.”

FRAGILE PEACE

The International Alert report cited martial law as the “single most important reason” for the “fragile peace” in Muslim Mindanao.

The number of conflict incidents went down from 4,140 in 2017 to 2,910 last year. Fewer deaths were also recorded at 900 in 2018 compared to 2,261 the year before.

Gun-related deaths were also reduced from 1,290 in 2017 to 891 last year. Explosives killed 53 people last year, a nearly 60-percent drop from 2017.

Duterte placed the entire Mindanao under martial rule right after IS-affiliated local terrorists seized the Islamic city of Marawi in May 2017, in a siege that went on for 5 months.

Martial law, thrice extended by Congress upon the president’s request, is set to end this year.

MARTIAL LAW

“Unless a political settlement is reached in the critical issue of illicit weapons, the withdrawal of the huge military presence in the region may destroy the fragile peace and reverse the gains of the past 2 years,” the International Alert report said.

Military rule “contributed significantly” to the lower conflict incidents last year, the report said. But Lara clarified it should not be seen as an endorsement of another martial law extension or even expansion.

“Martial law is not a permanent thing. It has to end. What we’re saying is, before it is pulled out, let’s agree on how to manage the problem of illicit weapons,” he said.

The military, he said, should “come out publicly” on the exact number of weapons it had seized under martial law in Mindanao.

TRANSITION

Under the MILF’s peace deal with the government, another 35 percent of its combatants would be decommissioned once a Bangsamoro security force was in place.

The rest of the fighters are expected to be re-integrated to civilian life when all agreements have been implemented.

The MILF heads the Bangsamoro Transition Authority, the ministerial regional government established before the first regular elections in 2022.

Lara warned of difficulties for the MILF in running the region under the current decommissioning schedule.

“It would be probably better to suspend decomissioning (so) you can utilize those people to ... fight ‘rido’ (clan feud), fight extremists, like what they’re doing right now,” he said.

“Why is that a big problem? During the interim period, they need to be able to rely on their own combatants for those purposes.”

Murad said half of the 3,000-strong joint peace and security team with the government would be composed of MILF fighters.