A low pressure area east of Batanes has developed into Tropical Depression Julian as of 2 a.m. Friday, weather bureau PAGASA said.

As of 4 a.m., Julian’s center was estimated based on all available data at 525 km East of Itbayat, Batanes. Packing 55 kph winds and gusts of up to 70 kph, Julian will continuously intensify throughout the forecast period and may reach tropical storm category Friday night or Saturday morning, severe tropical storm category by Sunday and typhoon category by Tuesday.

Moderate to heavy rains may be experienced over Batanes, Ilocos Norte, and Cagayan beginning Saturday.

Julian may become a typhoon this weekend: PAGASA

Julian is forecast to follow a looping path over the waters east of Batanes and Cagayan in the next five days.

PAGASA said Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 may be hoisted over portions of Cagayan Valley within the day. “Furthermore, the highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of Julian is Wind Signal No. 2 or 3,” it said. 

Julian is the tenth weather disturbance in the country this 2024 and the sixth this September.

Six storms in the country in September is very rare as it only happened twice in the past: in 1978 and 1993.

Climatologists attribute this increased tropical cyclone activity to the lack of storms in the previous months and the warm sea temperatures near the country.

The weather bureau earlier said 4 to 7 tropical cyclones may form inside or enter the Philippine area of responsibility in the last quarter of 2024, including 2 or 3 storms in October and 1 or 2 each in November and December.

4 to 7 storms to form inside or enter Philippine area before 2024 ends: PAGASA

The next storm names in PAGASA's list for 2024 include the following:

•  Kristine

•  Leon

•  Marce

•  Nika

•  Ofel

•  Pepito

•  Querubin