MANILA -- Thirty-seven provinces were experiencing drought as of March 17, state weather bureau PAGASA said on Wednesday.  

These areas include Metro Manila, Laguna, Rizal, Cavite, Mindoro, Palawan, Northern Luzon, most of Central Luzon and Visayas, and Lanao del Norte.

Twenty-two areas are under a dry spell and 12 more are experiencing dry conditions.

Drought occurs when there is more than 60 percent rainfall reduction for three consecutive months. Below normal rains for two consecutive months meanwhile lead to dry condition and dry spell for three consecutive months.

Data from the Department of Agriculture (DA) showed agricultural damage in eight regions has reached P 1.75 billion as El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean continues to weaken. 

Agricultural damage due to El Niño reaches P1.75 billion

The warm event may persist from March to May season before transitioning to neutral conditions between April and June.

There is also an increasing probability of La Niña by June to August.

PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Chief Ana Liza Solis said that while the impacts of the weakening El Niño could last through May, below-normal rains might continue through the rainy reason.

"Ang first impact po kasi ng developing La Niña or ongoing La Niña at first stage is 'yung higher probability of below normal condition during our habagat season," she said in a climate forum.

Solis added that La Niña's significant impacts of above normal rains may be experienced by the last quarter of the year.

LESS RAINS, HOTTER TEMPERATURES

For the month of April, PAGASA forecasts way-below to below-normal rains over most of the country, with only La Union, Laguna, and Rizal projected to receive above-normal rains.

This may lead to continuous decline in the water level of four major dams in Luzon.

Angat Dam, currently at 200.99 meters, is forecast to be just below 190 meters by the end of the month, above the rule curve or the level that can provide for all its intended purposes.

San Roque and Pantabangan Dams will be way below their rule curve levels at 227.23 meters and 175.97 meters, respectively.

Magat Dam, however, will continue to enjoy water level above its rule curve elevation, even with expected continued decline.

Daytime temperatures are also forecast to get hotter this April. Maximum temperatures may reach 39.7°C in Northern Luzon and 39.4°C in the lowlands of Luzon and Mindanao.

In Metro Manila, temperatures may reach as high as 38.0°C.

These figures do not take into consideration the humidity, which affects the heat index or the perceived heat by the body.

PAGASA has yet to declare the start of the dry season due to a remaining surge of the northeast monsoon or amihan, reaching Central Luzon.