Below normal rains to continue through July despite developing La Niña: PAGASA | ABS-CBN

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Below normal rains to continue through July despite developing La Niña: PAGASA

Below normal rains to continue through July despite developing La Niña: PAGASA

Ariel Rojas,

ABS-CBN News

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MANILA -- Below normal rainfall may continue through July as a result of the waning El Niño and developing La Niña, state weather bureau PAGASA said.

Generally, La Niña brings above normal rainfall to the country but the developing stage of the climate phenomenon may delay the onset of the rainy season and lead to less rains during the first months of the southwest monsoon or habagat season, PAGASA climatologists said. 

Above normal rains may not be experienced until the last quarter of the year, which will be more pronounced over the eastern parts of the country.

The prevailing El Niño continues to weaken and transition to neutral conditions is expected during May and June.

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PAGASA said there was 60-percent chance of La Niña developing during June-July-August season. Most climate projections so far show weak episode of La Niña but there is a 65-percent possibility of moderate intensity by October-November-December season.

But experts explained that intensity does not translate to severity of impact.

El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cold phases of a naturally occurring climate pattern called El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), manifested in changing wind directions and sea surface temperatures in the tropical part of the Pacific Ocean.

Both conditions affect rainfall and tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines.

LESS RAIN, HOTTER TEMPERATURES


For the month of May, PAGASA projects up to 60-percent reduction in rainfall over most of Luzon, the whole of Visayas and Zamboanga Peninsula, and parts of Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and BARMM.

Below normal rains will continue in many areas of Luzon by June and July.

Hotter temperatures are also expected in May and June, when the mercury in Northern Luzon may reach 41 degrees Celsius.

In the lowland areas of Luzon and Mindanao, temperatures may reach 40 and 38 degrees Celsius, respectively, from May to July.

While Metro Manila may continue to sizzle at 38 degrees this May, temperatures will decline beginning June.

Echague, Isabela and Camiling, Tarlac reached 40 degrees Celsius temperature these past two weeks--the hottest this year so far.

Metro Manila, meanwhile, recorded its hottest this year at 38.2 degrees Celsius in NAIA in Pasay City on April 18.


DAM, STORM PROJECTIONS


Due to continuous below normal rains, Angat Dam water level is seen to decline to 180.5 meters by the end of May - just a little over its minimum operating level of 180 meters.

However, the water level in the Pantabangan and Magat dams is projected to increase.

Pantabangan Dam, currently at 173.4 meters, which is below its minimum level, may reach 179.3 meters by the end of May. Magat Dam, at 177.49 meters as of April 24, may reach its normal high of 193 meters in the same period.

PAGASA also forecasts10 to 13 tropical cyclones from May to October.

There will be one or two storms in May and June and two to three storms each month from July to October.

There has not been any tropical cyclone in the country since December 2023.

There were only 11 tropical cyclones inside the Philippine area of responsibility in 2023 - making it one of the three years, along with 1998 and 2010, with the fewest storms. This is seen as an effect of the strong El Niño. The country sees an annual count of up to 20 storms. 





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