Angat Dam breached its minimum operating level at 179.9 masl on July 8, 2023. Gigie Cruz, ABS-CBN News/file

MANILA (UPDATED) -- A state hydrologist does not rule out the possibility of the Angat Dam reaching critical level in the coming months.

This, after PAGASA on Friday announced the end of the northeast monsoon or Amihan and the start of the warm and dry season.

"Hindi natin ni-ru-rule out 'yung possibility... 'Pag mainit, siyempre mataas 'yung rate of utilization ng tubig... One of the losses sa mga watersheds natin ay 'yung rate of evaporation: 'pag mainit mas mataas 'yung rate of evaporation na puwede talagang makapag-contribute sa pagpapababa sa elevation (ng dam water level)," Rosalie Pagulayan of PAGASA's Hydrometeorology Division said Wednesday.

(We are not ruling out the possibility of Angat Dam reaching critical level. During the dry season, the rate of water utilization increases. Another reason for watershed loss is the higher rate of evaporation during hot weather that can contribute to the continued decline in the dam water elevation.)

Climatologist Ana Liza Solis previously explained that the below-normal rainfall being experienced due to the ongoing El Niño might extend beyond May due to the developing La Niña.

Dry season is here, says PAGASA

PAGASA sees an increasing probability of La Niña during the June-July-August season.  

Based on the hydrological forecast presented Wednesday, the Angat water level may dip to 182.73 meters by the end of May, below the rule curve or the ideal level that can support all purposes. The minimum operating level of Angat Dam, however, is 180 meters.

"Kung hindi babawasan ang (water) allocation, may possibility na by mid-June, puwede na siyang pumalo ng 180 meters or below... Critical low water level na 160 meters, no; hindi natin aabutin 'yan... Possible 170, 'yun lang ang aabutin natin," explained Richard Orendain, another hydrologist at the weather bureau.

(If the water allocation will not be reduced, there is a possibility that by mid-June, the Angat level may dip to 180 meters or lower. We are not forecasting to go as low at 160 meters but we may possibly reach 170 meters.)

Orendain and Pagulayan both agreed that it is during the Amihan season that the Angat water level fully recovers.

Pagulayan maintained that there are present government interventions in place to ensure the availability of water resources in the coming months.

"Just to give emphasis doon sa ginagawang interventions ng ating government: marami pong dini-develop na sources for potable water for Metro Manila... Na-mention ko po may additional inflow na puwedeng pumunta particularly dito sa Angat... Ongoing po ang construction ng Kaliwa Dam. In Carmona, merong parang filtration pump dyan extracting water I think from Laguna Lake," she said.

(Just to emphasize the government interventions: there are many sources being developed for potable water supply in Metro Manila. I previously mentioned that there is additional inflow for Angat Dam--there is ongoing construction of the Kaliwa Dam. In Carmona, a filtration pump extracting water from Laguna Lake is in place.)

She also encouraged the public to continue practicing water austerity measures.

"Maraming klase ng pagtitipid na pwede nating gawin at our own level. Hindi man malaki but if we combine everything, malaki rin yung magiging impact nya para hindi natin masyadong maranasan yung negative impacts ng kakulangan ng tubig," Pagulayan said.

(There are many ways we can save water at our level. It may not be sizable but if we combine all our efforts, it will be significant enough to alleviate the negative impacts of water shortage.)