MANILA -- The Department of Agriculture expects rice prices to drop by as much as P7 in January 2025 due to the government’s decision to cut import tariffs.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr in a Palace briefing said that rice prices are seen to go down as early as October, after the government slashed the tariff on imported rice from 35 percent to 15 percent earlier in July to tame food inflation. 

NEDA Board to reduce rice tariffs to 15 pct from 35 pct until 2028

However, the full effect of the tariff cuts is expected to be felt by January next year, he said.

“The DA's estimates are by mid-October dapat pababa na iyan slowly, but the full effects should be felt by January of 2025,” the Agriculture Chief said in a Palace briefing Tuesday.

“Marami pa tayong stocks ng, iyong stocks na imported na nabili ng mahal paubos na. But the problem is, maraming nabiling local palay at a very high price of P30.00 per kilo from January to June of this year. Marami pang stock noon," he said.

"But, paubos na rin tingin ko by November iyan. So, we should see a lowering of—because of the lower duties, saka bumaba din ng kaunti ang international price ng bigas, so pababa na iyan,” he explained.

“But the full effects, para sa akin, P5.00 to P7.00 ang range, so, I will put it at P5.00 na dapat bumaba, kung P52 ngayon ang bigas, dapat by January nasa P48 na lang iyan, Kung P50 ang bigas ngayon, P45 dapat iyan by January, iyan ang aking estimates.”

Rice to be cheaper by P5 per kilo with tariff cut: Recto

According to the DA's latest price monitoring report, locally-grown regular milled rice had a weekly average price of P47.83 per kilo while well-milled rice was P50.38 per kilo. Imported regular milled rice meanwhile was P43.84 per kilo and well-milled at P49.33. Special rice meanwhile range was over P60 per kilo.

The National Economic Development Authority earlier attributed the slowing of food inflation in August 2024 to the slower inflation rate of rice with 14.7 percent in August 2024 from 20.9 percent in the previous month.

Inflation eases to 3.3 percent in August

“Iyong tariff reduction, palagay ko nag-uumpisa na rin makatulong iyan but we expect that to further go down in the coming months, iyong reduction in tariff rates for rice particularly so pababa na rin iyan," Finanace Secretary Ralph Recto said.

"I think one percent bumababa ang presyo nang konti and may lag effect iyan, it takes a few ‘ber’ months ‘no – when you reduce tariff, it takes a few more months before you can feel the entire effect."

"So, hopefully by… tamang-tama pagdating ng Pasko, medyo mas mababa na siguro ang presyo ng bigas,” he added.