The Philippines will likely continue to see American investments coming into the country no matter who wins the US presidential elections, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on Monday.

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CSIS’ Southeast Asia Program Senior Fellow and Director Gregory Poling said that while both the Republican and Democratic parties have been leaning towards more protectionist policies, private US companies continue to pour money into Southeast Asia at large, including in the Philippines.

“This is a great thing about the US system. The President can't actually do anything about what private US companies are doing. We hear US companies, through places like US-ASEAN Business Council, in the Chamber of Commerce talking about their VIP strategy, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines. That's going to continue no matter who's in office,” said Poling during the briefing of the new CSIS study, U.S. Investment in the Philippines: More Than Meets the Eye.

“As much as the US government might want to onshore production, get more manufacturing back in the US, there's clear limits to that. If you don't want things to be built in China, and they're too expensive to build in the United States, then the alternative is friendly economies, and the Philippines is at the top of that list,” he added.

The IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines (IBPAP) is also banking on the continued growth of the IT-BPM industry, which benefits a lot from US investments, regardless of a Harris or Trump presidency.

“Through the years, (our American members) have always operated as well as they always have and have expanded in the Philippines regardless of the administration. Therefore there are no concerns or immediate concerns that we have heard from them,” said IBPAP Chief Operating Officer Celeste Ilagan, who served as a panelist during the briefing.

For CSIS Senior Fellow Erin Murphy, the fact that Vice President Kamala Harris has personally visited the Philippines shows she is more open to economic cooperation with allies.

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“I would think, in terms of promoting alliances and making sure you know the Philippines are part of, you know, the Indo Pacific Economic Framework and more investment, especially through avenues like the Development Finance Corporation, I think Harris is better,” said Murphy.

“On the Trump side, he's not very keen on alliances… But in terms of, you know, building a bilateral relationship, one based on personalities, one on one, I think that you would have some opportunities here,” she added.

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UNLIKELIHOOD OF US-PH FTA

However, both Poling and Murphy believe a US-Philippines Free Trade Agreement is not in the cards either way.

“That is mostly out of a sense of fear and vulnerability. We’re in a position where it is politically salient in the United States to say that US workers are under threat, globalization has been bad… If the US doesn’t feel like it can compete, then the natural tendency is to circle the wagons, try to close off the market,” said Poling.

Still, the US-Philippines Society continues to advocate for a free trade arrangement between both countries, saying it would benefit American exporters.

“For example, US agricultural producers could be better able to compete for market access for dairy products, grains and other products,” said US-Philippines Society Executive Director Hank Hendrickson.

“An FTA would level the playing field with exporters from other countries that already benefit from free trade arrangements with the Philippines,” he added.

An FTA is also seen to benefit the Philippine semiconductor and electronics industry.

“We’ve actually lost some opportunities in the US because of the absence of an FTA… When companies want to export to the United States but they’re not TAA (Trade Agreements Act)-compliant, then they can’t export to the US,” said Dan Lachica, President of the Semiconductor and Electronics Industries in the Philippines Foundation, Inc. (SEIPI).

So what should the Philippines do to maximize US investment opportunities post-elections?

The CSIS said it is important to keep the person-to-person exchanges and investment roadshows going.

“For the Philippines, it’s really putting itself out there, whether it’s on trade shows or roadshows of how to invest here, building on what (US Commerce Secretary) Gina Raimondo did in terms of bringing business missions here. It’s just as important to go to the US as well,” said Murphy.

The CSIS also recommended further improvements in the ease of doing business and more economic reforms to attract more investments.