MANILA -- Inflation may settle between 2 to 2.8 percent in October, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said Thursday.

This was slightly higher than the 1.9 percent inflation print seen in September amid slower increases in rice prices. In a statement, the BSP said higher vegetables, fruits, and fish prices may drive inflation upward, along with climbing prices of domestic petroleum. 

The depreciation of the peso may also push inflation upward, the BSP said. After briefly clawing back value in September and reaching a high of P55.61 on Sept. 19, the peso started weakening again and ended at P58.252 at the close of the Oct. 30 trading.    

Meanwhile, lower rice and meat prices as well as lower power rates may tame inflation, the BSP said. The government expects the reduction of the tariffs on rice and other food products to help bring down the prices of these commodities. Economic managers are targeting to keep inflation between 2 to 4 percent in 2024. 

The Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI), one of the Philippines’ largest lenders, said it sees inflation hitting 2.5 percent in December.

BPI shared the central bank’s view that oil price hikes and the peso’s depreciation are driving costs higher. The bank also noted that bad  weather conditions in October may have affected the price of some  vegetables and fruits. 

The Ayala-led lender also said that the decline in rice prices “has not been meaningful as legal challenges surrounding the implementation of the rice tariff cut persist.”

But barring the possibility of of La Niña and spread of African Swine Fever, inflation should be manageable in the next year, said BPI.

Slower inflation has allowed the BSP cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in its last policy setting meeting. BSP Governor Eli Remolona has said that another 25 bps cut is possible in December, which would bring the cumulative cuts to 75 bps and bring the benchmark rate to 5.75 percent.

BPI said, however that some factors may push the BSP to stop rate cuts.

“The recent depreciation of the Peso reflects the market’s concerns over the pace of the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and the possibility that the Fed could pause,” BPI said.

“A stronger-than-expected US jobs report or a Republican sweep in the upcoming US elections could reinforce this sentiment, potentially weakening the peso further and adding upward pressure on inflation,” it added.

The BSP may also hold off on rate cuts if the Fed doesn’t cut rates, BPI said.

The Philippine Statistics Authority is set to release the official October inflation figures on Nov. 5.

Inflation eases further in September amid slower increases in rice prices