Philippine economy 'unlikely' to meet 6 to 7 pct growth target in 2021: Oxford Economics

ABS-CBN News

Posted at Aug 18 2021 11:54 AM | Updated as of Aug 18 2021 01:04 PM

Police officers monitor motorists passing through a checkpoint between Las Piñas and Bacoor City in Cavite. ABS-CBN News/File
Police officers monitor motorists passing through a checkpoint between Las Piñas and Bacoor City in Cavite. ABS-CBN News/File

MANILA - The Philippine economy is "unlikely" to meet the government's growth target of 6 to 7 percent this year due to the recent COVID-19 surge and supply chain disruptions, among others, Oxford Economics said Wednesday.

Growth could reach 3.5 to 4.5 percent instead, Oxford Economics Lead Asia economist Sian Fenner told ANC.

"We think personally that 6 to 7 percent this year is going to be fairly unlikely. We’ve become more pessimistic for the short-term growth in the next quarter," Fenner said.

The recent hard lockdown in place in Metro Manila until Aug. 20 to mitigate the spread of the more virulent COVID-19 Delta variant will "again weigh on sentiments and activity," she said.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick Chua earlier said the economy could lose P150 billion each week Metro Manila is under lockdown.

On top of that, there could be supply chain disruptions as the country's trade partners also battle the impact of the pandemic, she said. 

The Philippines' gross domestic product grew 11.8 percent in the second quarter, reflecting the low-based effect and following the revised 3.9 percent contraction in the first quarter.

In 2020, the economy contracted by 9.6 percent, its worst since the end of World War 2.

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