MANILA - The Philippine economy is "unlikely" to meet the government's growth target of 6 to 7 percent this year due to the recent COVID-19 surge and supply chain disruptions, among others, Oxford Economics said Wednesday.

Growth could reach 3.5 to 4.5 percent instead, Oxford Economics Lead Asia economist Sian Fenner told ANC.

"We think personally that 6 to 7 percent this year is going to be fairly unlikely. We’ve become more pessimistic for the short-term growth in the next quarter," Fenner said.

The recent hard lockdown in place in Metro Manila until Aug. 20 to mitigate the spread of the more virulent COVID-19 Delta variant will "again weigh on sentiments and activity," she said.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick Chua earlier said the economy could lose P150 billion each week Metro Manila is under lockdown.

• ECQ to cost Philippine economy P150 billion per week, says Chua

On top of that, there could be supply chain disruptions as the country's trade partners also battle the impact of the pandemic, she said.

The Philippines' gross domestic product grew 11.8 percent in the second quarter, reflecting the low-based effect and following the revised 3.9 percent contraction in the first quarter.

In 2020, the economy contracted by 9.6 percent, its worst since the end of World War 2.

• Philippine economy bounces back from recession with 11.8 percent growth in Q2

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