MANILA— The Philippine economy could grow by 9.5 percent in 2022 if it could achieve herd immunity early next year and if businesses and the financial sector receive targeted support, an ASEAN think tank said Wednesday.

Growth can be achieved if "everything goes according to plan" since the government is aware of the risks of the new COVID-19 variant and the importance of its vaccination plan," ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office chief economist Hoe Ee Khor told ANC.

Physical distancing and containment policies are no longer enough to safely reopen the economy and boost recovery, he said.

"So if everything goes according to plan, and vaccination rate is ramped up, you achieve herd immunity by early next year and at the same time, if you’ll be able to support the economy during this period of transition, with targeted business support… then there’s no reason for the economy not to bounce back very sharply," Khor said.

On Tuesday, AMRO said it projected the country's economy to grow by 6.4 percent in 2021 despite the less optimistic forecast of other organizations.

Several firms, including the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and Asian Development Bank downgraded their forecasts for the year following a surge in COVID-19 cases and the reimposition of various stages of lockdowns.

AMRO said two main factors remain as risks to economic growth, namely the pandemic and financial distress to the business sector.

Low interest rates, which was kept at 2 percent by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, could help support livelihood and businesses, Khor said.

The gross domestic product shrank 9.6 percent in 2020 largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

• ASEAN think tank optimistic on PH growth despite downgrades by multilaterals
• World Bank downgrades Philippine economic forecast to 4.7 percent for 2021
• IMF cuts Philippine economic growth forecast to 5.4 percent for 2021

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