Dissecting Data: The Philippines under a reenacted budget

Edson Joseph Guido, ABS-CBN Data Analytics

Posted at Mar 14 2019 01:17 PM | Updated as of Mar 14 2019 05:33 PM

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MANILA - (UPDATE) The national budget was last reenacted in 2010 for 38 days under House Speaker and former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. 

In 2001, 2004 and 2006, the government operated under the old budget the entire year.

This year, lawmakers missed the deadline for the first time in nearly a decade as the budget under former president Benigno Aquino III was enacted on time.

Excluding 2001, 2004 and 2006, the longest period the government operated under the previous year's budget was in 2003 for 112 days. As of March 14, the country is operating on the previous year's budget for 72 days.

National Budget status from 2000 to 2019. Source of raw data: Department of Budget and Management, Philippine Statistics Authority Processed by: ABS-CBN Data Analytics

Economic growth was stable and robust under the Aquino administration when the budget was enacted on time. 

But there is no proven link between days operating under a reenacted budget and the country's gross domestic product growth (GDP), during the period of 2000 to 2010. 

It is important to note that 2004 was an election year. This trend shows that during election years, GDP growth was higher. The year 2019 is also an election year.

Reenacted budget vs GDP growth. Source of raw data: Department of Budget and Management, Philippine Statistics Authority Processed by: ABS-CBN Data Analytics
Data showed that there is no clear relationship between government spending growth and reenacted budgets. Source of raw data: Department of Budget and Management, Philippine Statistics Authority Processed by: ABS-CBN Data Analytics

However, data showed that infrastructure outlay as a percentage of GDP are higher in years when the budget is enacted on time. 

Spending (Infrastructure outlays as percentage of GDP). Source of raw data: Department of Budget and Management, Philippine Statistics Authority Processed by: ABS-CBN Data Analytics