Negros Occidental is in top 5 provinces with most number of new COVID cases for 2nd straight day 2
Bacolod, which most of Negros Occidental’s cases come from, now has almost 1,000 infections. Photo from Bacolod City PIO on Facebook
Culture

Negros Occidental is in top 5 provinces with most number of new COVID cases for 2nd straight day

Yesterday, it reported 237 cases while today it tallied 304. Bacolod, which is producing most of the cases in the province, now has 911 confirmed cases and 13 deaths. BY BENJAMIN CO MD
BENJAMIN CO MD | Aug 26 2020

Infectious diseases and clinical pharmacology expert Dr. Benjamin Co has been thankfully breaking down coronavirus numbers in his personal blog since the outbreak started. The perspective he provides is informative, and comforting in those who are craving for a clear picture of how we are faring against the virus. Dr. Co will share daily updates and analysis of the Department of Health reported numbers with ANCX. 

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[Disclaimer: Whatever is written here is based on information released by the Department of Health (DoH) at the time of publication. Whatever changes DoH makes in their data later on…well that’s a different story in itself and as they say in their disclaimer: “the total cases reported may be subject to change as these numbers undergo constant cleaning and validation.”]

The quick rundown for the day: 5,277 newly reported confirmed cases (nevermind close to 20 percent are backlogs all the way back from March) bring the country’s total past the 200,000 mark. 

National Capital Region (NCR) contributes to 3,157 cases (60 of the country total).

Calabarzon has 1,000 total cases today (with Laguna, Rizal, and Cavite tallying the most numbers). Negros Occidental continues to be in the top five with 304 cases reported today.

There are now 65,764 active cases (up from 61,000 plus cases yesterday) and 2.2 percent are severe or critically ill (around 1.447 cases). [Whether they are hospitalized or not, is not indicated by the Health Agency].

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The Health Agency divides its report either as recent (last 14 days) or as “backlogs.” 

Of the 5,277 cases today, 4,350 (82.4 percent) are recent (from the period August 13 to August 26, 2020) while the remaining 927 are backlogs. The bulk of the backlogs are from Aug 1 to 12 (680 cases) and July (166 cases), with cases still being reported all the way back from March for both NCR, and Region IVA. 

Of the 360 cases from Region VI, 139 of them were backlogs. 

“Of the 5,277 cases reported today, 4,496 (85.2 percent) do not have information on date of onset of illness, 459 do not have information on date of specimen collection, while 422 do not have information on both.” (Yet the Department of Health uses the Date of Onset of Illness in their reporting for unexplained reasons.)

“In cases where date of onset of illness is missing, the date of specimen collection (minus three days) was used as proxy. In cases where both date of onset of illness and date of specimen collection are missing, the report date (minus nine days) were used as proxy.”

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There were 1,131 recoveries [with 58 cases being removed from the recoveries because they are non-COVID cases] bringing down the recovery rate to 66 percent (lower than the global average of 69 percent). 

There were 99 reported deaths: 61 from NCR (62 percent), 14 from Calabarzon, 12 from Central Luzon, 6 from Central Visayas, two from Western Visayas, one each from Regions II, X, and CAR, and one from an unknown location.

Of the reported deaths, 77 (77.8 percent) occurred this month, 18 happened in July, three last June and one back in May. 

The case fatality is up at 1.55 percent.

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As of August 25, reported on August 26, there were 2,245,872 individuals tested from 110 accredited testing facilities (83 RT-PCR and 27 GenXpert).

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The day yesterday

As of August 24, 2020, 2,227,829 individuals have been tested with 3,324 testing positive from 26,998 individuals tested. The report comes from 93 of 106 laboratories [I don’t really know why there is a discrepancy in the website data from the infographics of the Health Agency where they announce 86 out of 109 laboratories as the source of the data.] 

The daily positivity rate is down at 12.3 percent (previous 13 percent) with the cumulative positive rate steady at 10.5 percent.

Of 3,324 positives, 2,596 of them were from NCR (78.1 percent of the total). The daily positivity rate of NCR is down to 13.5 percent from a previous of 15.3 percent and cumulative positive rate up at 12.4 percent.

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As of yesterday, there were 197,164 total confirmed cases with NCR owning 111,115 or 56.4 percent of the total since the start of the pandemic. Regions IVA, VII, III, and VI make up the remaining top five. 

The repatriates had 147 new confirmed cases, bringing their total to 8,560. This is the fifth largest contributor to the pool of cases yesterday and fourth in rank in the country since the pandemic began. 

For August 25, 2020, NCR had 1,575 new confirmed cases with Regions IVA, VI, and III rounding up the top regions. 

In fifth was Region VII, which I intentionally omitted because after Central Luzon, all other regions, including Region VII had already fewer than 50 cases yesterday. Henceforth, only those with more than 100 cases will be included in the daily update. 

There were six cases with no tagged location on a regional level.

Negros Occidental is in top 5 provinces with most number of new COVID cases for 2nd straight day 8

 

The unknown

There were 103 unknowns (3.48 percent) with no tagged location on various levels among the top five regions: six with no known region, with the remaining having no tagged locations at the municipality/city level. NCR had the most individuals with untagged location with 59.

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The known

Six cities in Mega Manila reported three digits, with Quezon City in front with 230 cases. Others were Manila, Taguig, Caloocan, Makati, and Pasay. 

All the rest of the cities reported two digits with Malabon having the least number of cases yesterday. 

Fifty-nine (59) cases had no tagged location on the city level.

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Among the remaining top regions with more than 100 cases, the following provinces had the highest cases in the respective region: Laguna with 151 cases for Region IVA, Negros Occidental with 237 cases for Region III, and Pampanga with 91 cases for Region III.

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Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, and Rizal were the top provinces with confirmed cases in Region IVA yesterday.

On a city/municipality level, Santa Rosa is back on top with 41 cases. Thirteen other provinces had double digits. 

Thirty-four (34) cases had no tagged location.

Negros Occidental is in top 5 provinces with most number of new COVID cases for 2nd straight day 12
Negros Occidental is in top 5 provinces with most number of new COVID cases for 2nd straight day 13

Region VI came in third with the haul of Negros Occidental of 237 cases. 

Bacolod reported 186 cases yesterday. Bacolod reported its first case on March 21 (swabbed on March 13). Of the 186 cases reported yesterday, 78 of them were from August 1 to 11. Bacolod now has 911 confirmed cases and 13 deaths, to date.

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Pampanga dominated the cases in Region III with 91 cases followed by Bulacan with 71. Mariveles, however, had the most cases (31) on a city/municipality level.

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Negros Occidental is in top 5 provinces with most number of new COVID cases for 2nd straight day 16

The seven-day average for cases yesterday was up at 4,268 cases/day with the seven-day average for deaths at 47 deaths/day.

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Negros Occidental is in top 5 provinces with most number of new COVID cases for 2nd straight day 18

 

The world

We are now past the 24 million mark and with the seven-day average, are on track to a quarter of a billion cases in the next 4 days. 

The global case fatality rate stays at 3.42  percent and recoveries at 69  percent. As the number of confirmed cases increase, the fatality and recovery rates now slow down. [Recovery rates are not very reliable indicators because they are subjective based on the country’s definition of how and when they consider patients “recovered.”]

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Data from WorldOMeters.info.

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The United States has now more than 5.9 million cases with Texas, California, and Florida reporting the top three cases yesterday. The US reported the most deaths in the world yesterday. 

Brazil remained in second with more than 3.6 million cases but has been seeing better numbers with a down trend for confirmed cases in the past week with a seven-day average of around 37,000 cases/day.

India remains in third spot globally but continues to have the highest number of new confirmed daily cases as it reported more than 60,000 cases yesterday. The country now has over 3.23 million cases.

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The top 10 countries contributing to the pool of coronavirus cases for August 25, 2020 were:

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In spite of the fewer cases reported yesterday compared to the previous days, the Philippines managed to still land 10th with 2,965 confirmed cases and 1,796 cases/M population and has been unable to shake itself from the top ten since the onset of August.

The top 10 countries with highest deaths reported for August 25, 2020 were:

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This summary from the New York Times today is quite revealing. While the Philippines has a low case fatality rate (as DoH claims in its infographics that it is “doing better”), may I remind the health authority that that claim does not depict the true picture of fatalities in the pandemic in the country.

For the last time, I will reiterate that the Case Fatality Rate is a poor index of death rate in an ongoing pandemic. What is troubling is the increase in cases over the past weeks. 

With the 99 deaths today, this becomes more worrisome as pointed out in the summary from the New York Times below, where the Philippines is among the countries where new deaths are increasing (aside from Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Japan on this side of the continent):

“Deaths tend to rise a few weeks after a rise in infections, as there is typically a delay between when people are infected, when they die and when their deaths are reported. Some deaths reported in the last two weeks may have occurred much earlier because of these delays.”

Then, there’s the revelation during a senate hearing last week that more than half of severe and critically ill patients don’t get hospitalized. I’m also quite certain that there are excess mortalities, where patients died of a COVID-related illness, but were never tested at all before their passing.

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Our numbers are still nowhere from seeing a flattening of the curve any time soon because we’re still scouring through all those backlogs.