Infectious diseases and clinical pharmacology expert Dr. Benjamin Co has been thankfully breaking down coronavirus numbers in his personal blog since the outbreak started. The perspective he provides is informative, and comforting in those who are craving for a clear picture of how we are faring against the virus. Dr. Co will share daily updates and analysis of the Department of Health reported numbers with ANCX.
The Department of Health (DoH) announced a “change in process” for their reporting system in today’s Virtual Presser. According to USec Rosario Vergiere, this was done in order to give the Epidemiology Bureau longer time to evaluate the data and provide a more in-depth analysis. Today the 4 o’clock habit information showed lower cases. According to the health agency, this is due to the following factors: First, only 58 out of 72 laboratories submitted line list reports as of 4PM, and second, adjustment in time to extract data from the EB shows only 19 hours-worth of data from the COVID KAYA system rather than 24 hours.
We give the Health Agency room for this adjustment. This means that there will be changes in the analysis of the data from their end.
Nevertheless, data still comes in as fresh and late, with no purpose for this classification at all. I cannot even fathom how anyone can even suggest at splitting the data this way when it clearly doesn’t make sense, from both the epidemiology point of view or any theorem in the realm of mathematics.
The 4 o’clock habit
Today, the Health Agency reports 294 (52 fresh and 242 late) new confirmed cases. The last time we saw a number lower than this number was June 5 when the agency reported 244 cases. As of yesterday, our seven-day moving average is 888 cases/day.
We stay at more than 38,000 cases today. This is a large deviation from the average number of cases daily and is an outlier in the data due to the change in the process as explained during the virtual presser this afternoon.
The wastebasket group called “others” lead the pack with 189 cases today.
No one will believe that we only had 60 new confirmed cases in National Capital Region (10 fresh and 50 late). And no one will believe that there is no reported case from Region VII. I don’t think even the people in Region VII will believe they had no case—at all. Forty five of the cases are from repatriates.
We had four deaths, all of them occurred in June. Our case fatality rate is 3.28 percent. With 235 recoveries, our recovery rate increases slightly to 27.5 percent because of the very low number of cases reported today.
Based on the DoH data as of July 1, 2020, there are 26,803 active cases with 99.4 percent of them being mild (25,353 or 94.6 percent) or asymptomatic (1,280 or 4.8 percent). The serious cases—severe and critical—remain at 0.6 percent. Today, there are 170 serious cases (143 severe and 27 critical).
According to the Department of Health, there are two more accredited laboratories today, bringing to 74 the total number of facilities that do RT-PCR testing in the country.
The 10AM habit
There is no 10AM habit today. All the cases yesterday were not accounted for.
Instead, you see the 294 cases reported today at 5PM (after the virtual presser).
Of the four deaths today, all came from NCR. One death from Malabon, two from Manila, and one from Pasay.
All the 60 cases in the NCR fall under unknown. There are no cases in the individual cities except for the report on deaths.
Region VII has no reported case today.
In spite of these changes, one will note the discrepancy in the 4 o’clock reporting from the testing capacity results.
There were 61 out of 67 laboratories that submitted reports as of June 30. There were 14,228 samples tested in 13,334 individuals. Of these individuals, 1,267 tested positive. Or a daily positive rate of 8.9 percent (up from yesterday’s 7.51 percent).
Of the three testing centers in Region VII—Allegiant, Cebu Gene Expert and VSMMC—only VSMMC had reports submitted for June 30, 2020. This means that it is unlikely Region VII had no reports to provide. As a matter of fact, in 243 tests done in 211 individuals, 113 tested positive at VSMMC alone.
What does the testing capacity data tell us?
Yesterday, I used the positive test results to estimate the approximate number of new confirmed cases. More or less? The total positive test results will provide you an estimate on the number of cases for the day. In this case, 1,267 positives. Discounting the retests of patients (10 to 20 percent), the actual number of cases today? Between 1,000 to 1,250 new confirmed cases.
The race to 11 million cases toward the weekend seems to target earlier. Today, the world surpassed the 200,000 mark with its highest number of new confirmed cases in a day: 214,495!
After testing the 150,000 mark, the third quarter opens with testing the 200,000 daily cases.
There were slightly fewer deaths today than the previous day with 4,901 reported deaths.
The global case fatality rate is lower at 4.8 percent and recovery rate is at 55.8 percent.
Data from WorldOMeters.
Today’s outstanding haul is credited to two countries, the United States of America that broke a new record of more than 50,000 cases yesterday (+51,097) and Brazil with over 40,000 cases again (+44,884).
The US now has almost 2.8 million cases (2,780,152) with 130,798 deaths (CFR = 4.7 percent).
The states with the highest cases in the US yesterday were Texas (+8,240), Florida (+6,563), and California (+6,497).
Brazil in second spot with a total of close to 1.5 million cases had the highest death cases in the world overnight with 1,057 deaths. Their case fatality rate is at 4.2 percent.
The top 10 countries in the world with positive cases are in the table above. Mexico displaces Iran for 10th place based on the number of cases reported yesterday. Based on the seven-day average cases of India, they will soon replace Russia for the third spot any day soon.
Top 10 countries that had the highest new cases overnight were:
- USA – 51,097
- Brazil – 44,884
- India – 19,428
- South Africa – 8,124
- Russia – 6,556
- Mexico – 5,432
- Colombia – 4,163
- Pakistan – 4,133
- Bangladesh – 3,775
- Saudi Arabia – 3,402
The Philippines moves one rank down in the world from 38th to 39th position due to a surge in cases in Kazakhstan.