Rise in COVID cases likely 'weak surge,' says OCTA Research


Posted at Jun 22 2022 11:38 AM | Updated as of Jun 22 2022 12:03 PM

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The recent increase in COVID-19 cases will likely be a "weak surge" that would not overwhelm hospitals, independent research group OCTA said Wednesday.

The uptick in COVID infections is mostly being driven by Metro Manila, according to OCTA Research fellow Guido David. Aside from the capital region, there has also been a rise in cases in parts of Calabarzon, Western Visayas, and Benguet province, he said.

Metro Manila's COVID positivity rate, or the number of people who test positive for the virus, has increased to 5.5 percent, above the threshold of the World Health Organization, the math professor said.

The region's coronavirus reproduction rate, or the number of people infected by a single patient, has also gone up to 2, David added.

"Good news is that we’re projecting a weak surge, it won't really disrupt as much as the omicron wave. It won't be as devastating to hospitals as the delta and alpha wave last year," he told ANC's Headstart.

Metro Manila will likely remain under Alert Level 1 "unless something drastic happens," David said.

"It’s becoming a cause for concern, though not a cause for alarm yet. We’re optimistic hospitalization will not reach critical levels because these are subvariants of omicron we think are spreading. Based on data, the omicron tends to bring about milder forms of the diseases, especially for the vaccinated," he said.

"We don’t foresee a lockdown but we should still do our part by protecting ourselves and following public health standards."