Over the last few days, viral posts circulated across various social networking sites regarding an alleged “68:32 magic” vote ratio from the transmission arrivals of the 2022 National and Local Elections. According to these posts, there was purportedly an observed uncanny and consistent pattern of percentage turnout for presidential contenders Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, with constant 68%, and incumbent Vice President Leni Robredo, with 32%.
We, in the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting, then requested academic institutions to examine this issue together with PPCRV’s own technical team using the transmission data available to us.
As of this writing, the statistical analysis of these academic experts from different reputable academic institutions in the country showed that there were no irregularities in the alleged 68:32 vote ratio.
This team of experts first used a holistic examination of the available numbers and then looked at the data from the precincts and from each region in order to verify if there was indeed a persisting and curiously regular pattern.
Using this method, the conclusion arrived at was that there were no irregularities that can be attributed to the constant vote ratio computed across different transmission arrivals between Mr. Marcos and Vice President Robredo that would sufficiently indicate any perceived data manipulation. The transmission arrivals can still be considered as random samples of the total population of votes and that the claimed consistent ratio appeared only after a large percentage of the total votes had been transmitted.
In statistics, this is more commonly known as the “Law of Large Numbers,” a phenomenon which has been also observed historically in the 2016 Elections and 2013 Elections.
These experts willingly and continuously devote their time and effort for this endeavor. We cannot thank them enough for their efforts.