Democrats 'clear favorites' in US polls but still unsure of House control- analyst


Posted at Nov 05 2018 05:13 PM

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MANILA - The Democrats have a "clear and convincing" lead in the polls, but are not assured of taking control of the US House of Representatives during the midterm elections this week, an analyst with the Economist said Monday. 

Dan Rosenheck, data editor at The Economist, said based on their statistical model, the Democrats have an 86 percent chance of winning at least 218 Congressional seats, which is the minimum needed to take control of the chamber. 

He said their most likely scenario is the Democrats win 229 seats. 

"So roughly, the odds of Republicans holding the House are about as likely as picking a random day of the week and having it come up Thursday," Rosenheck said in an interview with ANC's Market Edge. 

Rosenheck however also said that the battle for control of the US Congress is different when it comes down to district by district voting. 

It's possible for Democrats to win a few seats by a large margin, but lose a few seats with a small margin, Rosenheck said. 

But Rosenheck also noted that the number of districts that are heavily compeitive is much wider this year. 

"In recent months, the Democrats have had the wind at their backs," he said. 

Rosenheck noted that the Democrats' third quarter fund raising collected almost twice as much from individual contributions compared to Republicans.