How accurate was the last Pulse Asia pre-election survey?


Posted at May 15 2019 12:54 PM | Updated as of May 15 2019 06:25 PM

Pulse Asia's last pre-election survey from May 3-6, roughly a week before election day, reflected all top 15 senators, based on partial and unofficial results from 96% of election returns (ERs). 

In terms of ranking, Pulse Asia's last survey, which had a margin of error of plus/minus 2.3%, was still fairly accurate, with 13 out of 15 correct. 

The ranking was slightly off only for 2 candidates, former Senator Bong Revilla Jr. (Lakas) and former MMDA chief Francis Tolentino (PDP-Laban). Both ran under the administration slate. 

Revilla was projected to rank 4th to 8th but was 10th on the latest count (96% ERs). 

Tolentino was projected to rank 10th to 15th but was 9th on the latest count. 

As of posting, returns from 3,284 precincts had not been counted. 

There were also 1,170,331 overvotes in the Senate race, almost 3% of the total 45.6 million votes cast, which means positions (e.g. senator) which had been overvoted were not counted by the machines, according to a study done by the ABS-CBN data analytics chief Edson Guido.