Metro Manila's COVID-19 trend is declining, says OCTA Research

Gillan Ropero, ABS-CBN News

Posted at Sep 26 2021 09:00 AM | Updated as of Sep 26 2021 09:14 AM

Commuters queue to ride the EDSA bus carousel at the Monumento station in Caloocan City on Sept. 2, 2021, amid the modified enhanced community quarantine. The country breached the two million mark in total number of COVID-19 cases on Sept. 1, after 14,216 more infections were logged, according to the Department of Health. Mark Demayo, ABS-CBN News
Commuters queue to ride the EDSA bus carousel at the Monumento station in Caloocan City on Sept. 2, 2021, amid the modified enhanced community quarantine. The country breached the two million mark in total number of COVID-19 cases on Sept. 1, after 14,216 more infections were logged, according to the Department of Health. Mark Demayo, ABS-CBN News

MANILA - The trend of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila is declining, OCTA Research Group said Sunday.

The capital region's positivity rate and reproduction rate have declined to 19 to 20 percent and 0.94, respectively, according to Guido David. A virus reproduction rate of less than 1 is ideal, authorities earlier said.

"Ngayon, medyo bumilis ang pagbaba. Nag-umpisa 'yan nasa MECQ (modified enhanced community quarantine) tayo. So in part, nakatulong naman ang lockdown natin, at least sa pagbaba ng bilang ng kaso," David told ABS-CBN's TeleRadyo.

(The decline has sped up somewhat. It began while we were under MECQ. So in part, the lockdown helped in bringing down the number of cases.)

"At least, sa Metro Manila at saka sa ibang areas, 'yung nakikita nating pagbaba, may basis naman talaga, 'di lang case count. Pati positivity rate, bumababa rin... May genuine na pagbaba yan sa nakikita natin."

(At least in Metro Manila and other areas, the decrease in cases has basis as it not just the case count but also the positivity rate that has declined... We can see there's a genuine decrease in cases.)

The decline in cases may be attributed to the country's vaccination program and the public's observance of health protocols, David said.

Some 19.6 million individuals in the country have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, as of Sep. 23, representing 25.5 percent of the target population for inoculation.

In Metro Manila, more than 6.7 million have been fully vaccinated so far, according to data monitored by the ABS-CBN Investigative and Research Group.

Calabarzon also has a "less than 1" reproduction rate, while Benguet, Cagayan Valley, Negros Oriental and Leyte have recorded a rise in cases, according to David.

"Tinitingnan natin kung may trend 'yan o baka may clustering lang," he said.

(We're still observing if it's a trend or maybe there's just clustering.)

The decline in cases in Metro Manila is not assured and might still reverse, David said.

"Wala naman tayong assurance na 'di magbabago yun, unang-una kung 'di tayo magiingat... May mga paraan para ma-reverse ang trend," he said.

(We have no assurance it will not change, especially if we're not careful... There are still ways for the trend to be reversed.)

Lawmakers have criticized OCTA Research for the accuracy of its COVID-19 projections. The group said it uses data from the Department of Health.

The Philippines on Saturday listed 16,907 additional COVID-19 cases, raising the country's total to 2,470,175, of which 165,092 are active.

The country logged its first COVID-19 case on Jan. 30 last year in a Chinese woman who arrived from Wuhan City, China where the disease is believed to have first emerged.

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