MANILA — A University of the Philippines (UP) group estimates that COVID-19 cases in the country may reach over half a million by the end of the year.
Using the Department of Health’s August 31 data, the UP COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team projected at least 402,821 cases to as many as 767,611 cases, or an average of 585,216 cases by December 31, 2020.
The update, posted on the group’s Endcov.PH website, also mentions a projection of 2 million detected and undetected cases.
Dr. Peter Cayton, a UP statistics professor and member of the group, said among the factors they look at for their projections are mobility of people, detection of cases and reporting delays.
According to their website, the model used for the projections “assumes a medium risk,” which means it is “not the worst-case scenario.”
It also looks into the relative effect of population density on the spread of the disease.
Following the same projections, their estimated number of active cases or those still infected with COVID-19 by December 31 are 20,991 to 116,726. On average, they estimate 13,771 of the active cases to be severe and critical cases.
Meanwhile, deaths are projected to reach 5,059 to 10,094.
On Thursday, additional COVID-19 cases were again lower than usual for the 2nd straight day. The total cases were at 228,403 while active cases were at 65,240. Meanwhile, coronavirus -related deaths totaled 3,688 and recoveries 159,475.