'It's too early to call the race': Pollster downplays 'bandwagon effect' in pre-poll surveys

ABS-CBN News

Posted at Jul 14 2021 06:19 PM

'It's too early to call the race': Pollster downplays 'bandwagon effect' in pre-poll surveys 1
People fill up forms as they process their voter’s registration at the Commission on Election office at the Manila City hall on May 17, 2021. Jonathan Cellona, ABS-CBN News/File

MANILA - An independent pollster on Wednesday downplayed concerns regarding possible "bandwagon effect" of pre-election surveys, saying that previous frontrunners did not necessarily clinch the presidential polls.

"If there's still a bandwagon effect, then all our previous surveys done in past elections whether this would be the elections of 2004, 2010 and 2016 would have resulted to different winners," Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes told ANC's "Rundown".

With nearly a year before Filipinos cast their ballots, he said "it's too early to call the race".

Holmes noted that those who led the surveys in the past ended up losing their bids for Malacañang.

"Eventually, the winners were not the same as the ones who are getting significant and were leading in terms of the pre-election races," he said. "So, the bandwagon effect is not necessarily established nor supported by what we actually done in the past."

On Tuesday, Pulse Asia released its latest pre-election survey for the 2022 elections, with Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio leading the pack of possible presidential candidates.

Duterte-Carpio garnered 28 percent, followed by Manila Mayor Isko Moreno (14 percent), former Sen. Bongbong Marcos Jr. (13 percent) and Sen. Grace Poe (10 percent).

Meanwhile, in the vice presidential race, some 18 percent of respondents said they would vote for incumbent President Rodrigo Duterte.

Manila Mayor Isko Moreno (14 percent), Sen. Tito Sotto III (10 percent), former Sen. Bongbong Marcos (10 percent) and Sen. Manny Pacquiao (9 percent) rounded up the top 5.