Metro Manila COVID cases might decline in 1 to 2 weeks: OCTA Research

Gillan Ropero, ABS-CBN News

Posted at Jul 04 2022 01:58 PM | Updated as of Jul 04 2022 04:46 PM

Commuters line up to ride the EDSA Bus Carousel at the Roosevelt station in Quezon City on July 1, 2022. While the EDSA bus carousel remains free of charge, the Department of Transportation’s (DOTr) libreng sakay for the MRT-3 ended on the same day after servicing commuters since March 28. George Calvelo, ABS-CBN News
Commuters line up to ride the EDSA Bus Carousel at the Roosevelt station in Quezon City on July 1, 2022. While the EDSA bus carousel remains free of charge, the Department of Transportation’s (DOTr) libreng sakay for the MRT-3 ended on the same day after servicing commuters since March 28. George Calvelo, ABS-CBN News

MANILA - COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila are expected to decline within 1 to 2 weeks as its growth rate slowed, independent research group OCTA said Monday.

The capital region's COVID-19 growth rate was at 50 percent, according to OCTA Research fellow Guido David. Its virus reproductive number, or the number of people affected by a single patient, was at 1.5 to 1.6, while its average daily attack rate (ADAR) was at 3.6 per 100,000 population, he said.

The DOH's ADAR threshold for Metro Manila was at 6 per 100,000 population, David noted.

"Medyo bumabagal na ang growth rate... Medyo stable na siya. Di na masyado tumataas ang reproduction number at growth rate. That's why we’re expecting 1 to 2 weeks, baka bababa na ang bilang ng kaso," David said in a televised briefing.

(Mero Manila's growth rate...is becoming stable. The reproduction rate and growth rate also don't increase much anymore. That's why we’re expecting 1 to 2 weeks cases might decline.)

Aside from Metro Manila, other areas that are experiencing an uptick in cases were Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Batangas, Pampanga, Benguet and parts of Western Visayas, David said.

"Tumataas ang kaso pero hindi ganun kataas yung nakikita nating nagiging bilang," he said.

(Cases are rising but the numbers are not that high.)

"Between the next 1-2 weeks, dun yung aabutin natin bilang ng kaso. And then from there, baka magkaroon na ng downward trend. But again, these are just projections, puwedeng magbago."

(Between the next 1-2 weeks, we might reach the peak. And then from there, the downward trend might begin. But again these are just projections, it can change.)

The primary reason for the increase in cases in the said regions were omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5, David said. The public's waning immunity could also be a factor, he added.

"Correlated dito, marami tayong cases ng BA.5 sa mga lugar ng (we have many cases of BA.5 in the areas of) NCR (national Capital Region), Calabarzon, Western Visayas," he said.

The Philippines recorded 1,323 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, the highest daily tally since February 25, or in over four months, according to ABS-CBN Data Analytics Team head Edson Guido. 

Of the additional cases reported during the day, 663 are from Metro Manila, the DOH said.

The positivity rate from June 26 to July 2 is at 6.8 percent, higher than the 5.0 percent recorded the previous week, said Guido.

More than 70 million people in the Philippines have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19.

Metro Manila and dozens of other areas will stay under COVID-19 Alert Level 1 until July 15, Malacañang said, even as the capital region recorded a rise in new infections. 

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