'Like game's last 2 minutes': Final 30 days of election campaign 'crucial', says Pulse Asia


Posted at Apr 08 2022 12:09 PM | Updated as of Apr 08 2022 12:19 PM

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MANILA - The last 30 days of a political campaign is crucial and politicians should "not shoot the messengers" such as polling firms, the president of Pulse Asia said Friday.

It's "possible" to have a dramatic shift in poll numbers within 30 days, according to Ronald Holmes, president of Pulse Asia Research Inc.

"It would really depend on how each candidate would really change their strategy. The last 30 days is like the last 2 minutes of a basketball game. The other team might be leading 12 to 15 points, the last 2 minutes is a crucial thing. If someone shoots five 3-pointers, the game is tied," he told ANC's Headstart.

"It’s not a question of whether the race is done. Those 30 days of campaign will be crucial. It might be best for some candidates to look back in term of their messages, how it can be refined and trying to escalate activities that will generate support for their candidacy," said Holmes. 

Surveys are not infallible, Holmes added, when asked about some candidates' criticism of survey results. 

"There’s a level of confidence, a margin of error, but just to dismiss it because the results do not favor you, to me, is a little bit irrational," he said.

"I would caution in terms of going to the extent of shooting the messengers because they would have to realize that message is very important and it’s something that should assist them in calibrating their strategies."


In its latest March pre-election survey, Pulse Asia used the same methodology it applied in previous polls, said Holmes.

All social classes have the same chance to be randomly selected, he said after the pollster, failed to get class respondents from the most affluent class AB for 2 consecutive surveys. 

These 2 classes make up "about 1 percent" of ABC, Holmes added.

"We try to get AB. Unfortunately, there’s no one among the randomly selected respondents who belongs to class AB. There's no exclusion, everyone has the same chance of being selected. There are more people that might be selected from this particular group. This is the same method we've been using in the past," he said.

"It's a little difficult also to get AB. In the metropolis, they reside in gated subdivisions, condominiums with high security. In the provinces, maybe some of them were taken initially, but they refused to be interviewed. You cannot force people to be interviewed, that’s unethical."

Former senator Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos kept his lead in the March survey, with 56 percent of 2,400 respondents saying they would vote for him if the elections were held last month. 

Vice President Leni Robredo, whose score rose by 9 points to 24 percent from 15 in February, placed second. 

Manila Mayor Isko Moreno Domagoso was at third place with 8 percent, followed by Sen. Manny Pacquiao with 6 percent, and Sen. Panfilo Lacson with 2 percent.