After 3 years, PAGASA declares end of La Niña

Ariel Rojas, ABS-CBN News

Posted at Mar 14 2023 09:52 PM

MANILA - State weather bureau PAGASA has declared the end of La Niña as it issues its final advisory on the climate pattern.

In its final ENSO advisory, PAGASA said La Niña, or the cold phase, has ended. Most climate models also predict ENSO-neutral is "favored from March through June", with "an increased likelihood of a transition to El Niño (warm phase)" after.

PAGASA, however, said that although La Niña has already ended, the country may still experience above-normal rainfall conditions due to its lag effects.

El Niño, on the other hand, may bring below-normal rainfall conditions, which may cause dry spells and droughts in some parts of the country.

La Niña and El Niño are the cold and warm phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is a naturally-occurring climate pattern observed in the variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific every three to seven years.

The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) earlier declared the end of La Niña on March 9. Meanwhile, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) also followed suit today alongside an El Niño Watch issuance.

In its outlook for March 2023, PAGASA said that there will be gradual shift in the wind systems as the Amihan is forecast to wane and the warm Easterlies will become predominant. 

Up to one tropical cyclone is also predicted to form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility this March, although presently, weather models indicate the absence of a weather disturbance in the next two weeks.


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