Villar, Erap catching up with Noynoy


Posted at Dec 21 2009 12:07 PM | Updated as of Feb 04 2010 09:58 PM

Chiz's supporters went to Erap

MANILA, Philippines (2nd UPDATE) - With five months to go before the May 2010 elections, Senator Benigno 'Noynoy' Aquino III has kept his double-digit lead in the presidential surveys, but Senator Manny Villar and former President Joseph Estrada are catching up.

"Senator Benigno C. Aquino III continues to lead other presidential candidates by a sizeable margin," polling firm Pulse Asia said in its latest December 8 to 10 survey.

Aquino kept a big 22 percentage-point lead over Villar (who was preferred by 23% of respondents), and has a 26 percentage-point lead over Estrada (who was preferred by 19% of respondents).

However, Aquino gained only 1% from the October 2009 survey, while Villar gained 4%. Estrada was the biggest gainer with an 8% jump from October 2009.

In an interview with ABS-CBN, Pulse Asia President Ronald Holmes attributed the increase in the ratings of some of the presidential aspirants, especially Estrada's, to the moves of  Senator Francis Escudero and Vice President Noli de Castro not to join the presidential race.

"In the last survey, where Escudero was still included, he had 13% while Vice President Noli de Castro had 4%. So you have 17% which could have gone to the other candidates," Holmes said.

With a margin of error of plus/minus 2%, Pulse Asia said Villar and Estrada are actually statistically tied.

In a statement, Aquino's camp said the Liberal Party standard-bearer continues to lead due to their campaign for good governance.

"The survey results validate our belief that the Filipino people continue to support our campaign for an honest government," Aquino's camp said. "Our call remains, ang laban na tapat ay laban ng lahat!"

Aquino said the new results came "at a time when our many opponents are desperately trying to bring us down through lies and black propaganda."

"The fact that these are among the highest ever ratings for a presidential candidate--former President Joseph Estrada's peak approval stood at 42% and remained at around 38% during the 1998 elections--proves that their dirty tricks are not working," Aquino's camp said.

Gibo still way behind

Administration candidate Gilbert Teodoro gained 3 percentage points, but was still way behind the top three with a preference rating of only 5%.

"Compared to the October 2009 Ulat ng Bayan survey, the support for Sen. Aquino III remains virtually unchanged. On the other hand, there is significant improvement in voter preference for former President Estrada and marginal increases in the support for Sen. Villar and Lakas-Kampi-CMD standard bearer Gilbert 'Gibo' Teodoro," Pulse Asia said.

Sen. Richard Gordon and Bro. Eddie Villanueva were tied with a 1% presidential preference.

The Pulse Asia December 8-10 survey asked 1,800 respondents who their preferences were from a list of 15 names. They were asked: Sa mga taong nasa listahang ito, sino ang inyong iboboto bilang Presidente ng Pilipinas kung ang eleksyon ng 2010 ay gaganapin ngayon at sila ay mga kandidato sa pagkapresidente?

"Of the people on this list, who will you vote for president of the Philippines if the 2010 elections were held today and they were the candidates for president?"

The survey also found that being pro-poor and having a clean record were the top reasons for the respondents' choices for president.

Pulse Asia said "27% of Filipinos say they opted for a candidate because he/she cared for the poor, while 21% cited a candidate's being not corrupt or having a clean record."

2010 Elections: Comparative Presidential Preference

October and December 2009/Philippines

Presidential Preference First Choice Change *
Oct 09 (14 names) Dec 09 (15 names) Oct 09 - Aug 09

Aquino, Benigno "Noynoy" III

Villar, Manuel "Manny" Jr.

Estrada, Joseph "Erap"

Teodoro, Gilbert C.

Gordon, Richard "Dick"

Villanueva, Bro. Eddie




























(1) *Change= Figures of December 2009 minus Figures of October 2009

(2) Excluded are Presidentiables with less than 1% preferences

Legarda catches up with Mar

Senator Loren Legarda, running mate of Senator Manny Villar, has caught up with Senator Mar Roxas II in the vice-presidential race.

Based on the December 8-10 Pulse Asia survey, preference for Legarda as the country's next vice-president went up from 23% in October 2009 to 37% in December 2009 or a gain of 14 percentage points.

This allowed her to be in a statistical tie with Roxas, who got 39% preference rating from respondents.

"Senator Manuel 'Mar' A. Roxas and Senator Loren B. Legarda are statistically tied for first place in the vice presidential race, with each obtaining support from close to four out of ten Filipinos," Pulse Asia said.

"Senator Legarda is the only vice presidential candidate who registers a significant change in voter preference since October 2009," the polling firm said.

Holmes said respondents who formerly chose Vice President Noli de Castro, Senators Jinggoy Estrada, Ramon Revilla may have also picked Legarda.

"What comes out is, although we cannot say definitely is, Legarda's rise could be due to the non-filing [of certificates of candidacy for vice-president] of these three candidaters," Holmes said.

Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay, the running mate of former President Joseph Estrada, was third with 14% preference rating, statistically the same as his 13% October 2009 rating.

Administration bet Edu Manzano, a newcomer in the race, got 2% in the December 2009 survey. He was tied with former Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) Bayani Fernando, who also got 2%.

There were 15 names to choose from in the December 2009, up from 10 names in October 2009.

A total of 1,800 respondents were asked: "Of the people on the list, who will you vote for as vice-president of the Philippines if elections were held today and they were the candidates for vice-president?"

Legarda is the vice-presidential candidate of the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC), the party founded by San Miguel Corp. CEO Eduardo 'Danding' Cojuangco Jr..

She lost in the 2004 vice-presidential elections to her former ABS-CBN colleague, then Senator Noli de Castro. She filed a protest but also lost.

The December 2009 survey has a margin of error of plus/minus 2%.