Aquino leads by 'big margin' in Pulse Asia survey

MANILA-(3rd UPDATE)-Liberal Party presidential candidate Sen. Benigno 'Noynoy' Aquino leads in the latest presidential polls of Pulse Asia getting 44% preference in October 2009 or a 25 percentage-point margin over Nacionalista Party standard-bearer Sen. Manuel Villar's 19%. 

"Senator Benigno C. Aquino III leads all surveyed presidential hopefuls/presidentiables by a big margin. The reason most-often cited in expressing a voting preference for a possible presidential candidate is the latter's clean public record ('malinis') or, alternatively, not being corrupt 'hindi kurakot'," polling firm Pulse Asia said Monday.

Sen. Francis Escudero, with 13% preference, was statistically tied in third place with former President Joseph Ejercito Estrada, who got 11% support.

Vice-President Noli de Castro was next with 4%.

"With Senator Aquino joining the presidential race, the other personalities who used to be in the lead experienced a decline in their voter preferences. Between August and October 2009, the biggest drop in electoral support is recorded by Vice-President Noli de Castro (-12 percentage points). The voter preferences of Senator Villar and former President Estrada also decline during this period (-6 and -8 percentage points, respectively),” Pulse Asia said.

Administration candidate Gilbert 'Gibo' Teodoro remained at the bottom of the surveys together with Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA) chairman Bayani Fernando with 2% and 1%, respectively.

Why voters prefer Noynoy

When respondents were asked why they would vote for their preference, 21%  or 2 in 10 Filipinos said it is "because he/she is not corrupt or is malinis," the survey found. 

In May 2009, Pulse Asia said the leading reason for voting was a "candidate's being helpful to others (34%) while in August 2009, the top reasons cited were a candidate's having many accomplishments and his/her being pro-poor (20.3%). “

Pulse Asia said the survey was done after Estrada declared his presidential bid and after Escudero's departure from the NPC.

The survey was conducted October 22 to 30 with a plus/minus 2% margin of error. It used face-to-face field interviews with 1,800 respondents.

Respondents were asked: Of the people on this list, whom would you vote for as President of the Philippines if the elections were held today and they were the presidential candidates.

The other presidential candidate on the list was Eduardo 'Bro. Eddie' Villanueva who got 1%.

The latest survey was part of Pulse Asia's Ulat ng Bayan series, which it conducts on "its own without any party singularly commissioning  the research effort."

Mar leads Loren by 14%

In the vice-presidential survey, Senator Manuel 'Mar' Roxas II of the Liberal Party would have been chosen by 4 in 10 Filipinos as the next vice-president if elections were held in October 2009.

"Senator Manuel A. Roxas II emerges as the favored vice-presidential bet in October 2009," Pulse Asia said in its media release.

Roxas got 37% preference or a 14 percentage-point margin over Nationalist People's Coalition bet Sen. Loren Legarda's 23% in the same October 22-30 Ulat ng Bayan survey of Pulse Asia.

Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay, the running mate of former President Joseph Estrada, was statistically tied in third place with incumbent Vice-President Noli de Castro with 13% and 11% preferences, respectively.

Lakas-Kampi-CMD's vice-presidential candidate, actor-TV host Edu Manzano, was not included in the survey since he only declared his bid last Friday (November 13) after accepting the offer from the ruling party.

Senators Jinggoy Estrada and Ramon 'Bong' Revilla were tied with 4% preference each.

Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA) chairman Bayani Fernando, Sen. Richard Gordon, Interior and Local Government Secretary Ronaldo Puno were tied with 1% preference each.

"There are  no significant movements in the voter preferences of those  individuals included in Pulse Asia's August and October 2009 vice-presidential probes as changes range only from -4 percentage points for Vice-President de Castro to +4 percentage points for Sen. Legarda," Pulse Asia said.

Respondents were asked: "Of the people on this list, whom would you vote for as vice-president of the Philippines if the elections were held today and they were vice-presidential candidates?"

Opposition dominates senatorial survey
 
The same survey also showed opposition politicians would dominate the senatorial elections if the polls were held last October 2009.

Eleven opposition politicians or persons supporting opposition presidential bets were in the top 15 preferences of 1,800 respondents who were asked by Pulse Asia last October 22-30 about their senatorial preferences.

Senator Jinggoy Estrada topped the survey with nearly one out of every two respondents choosing him as one of 12 senators.

"Currently leading the senatorial race is Senator Jinggoy Estrada, whose overall voter preference of 46.7% translates to a statistical ranking of 1st to 2nd places," Pulse Asia said.

The other opposition politicians in the top 15 are:

• former Senator Frank Drilon (38.6%)
• Sen. Pia Cayetano (37.2%)
• Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay (36.6%)
• Sen. Manuel Roxas (36.3%)
• Sen. Jamby Madrigal (31.6%)

• Aquilino 'Koko' Pimentel  (31.4%)
• former Sen. Ralph Recto (30.6%)
• former Sen. Sergio 'Serge' Osmeña (28.5%) 
• Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile (26.6%).

Another figure in the top 15 was Willie Revillame, host of ABS-CBN's noontime show Wowowee with 27.4%. Revillame has announced that he will not be running in the 2010 elections, but he is supporting  Nacionalista Party presidential bet Sen. Manny Villar.

The four pro-administration politicians in the top 15 were:

• Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago (42.4%)
• Sen. Ramon 'Bong' Revilla Jr. (36.6%)
• Dangerous Drugs Board chairman Vicente 'Tito' Sotto III (28.2%)
• Actor-TV host Edu Manzano (24%).

Manzano decided last Friday that he will no longer run for the Senate after agreeing to be the running mate of ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD presidential bet Gilbert Teodoro.

Roxas and Binay are also running for the vice-presidential post.

"Senator Estrada is followed closely by Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago (42.4%) who is ranked 1st to 3rd. In 2nd to 7th places is former Senate President Franklin Drilon (38.6%) while 3rd to 7th places are shared by Senator Pia S. Cayetano (37.2%), Senator Revilla (36.6%), Makati City Mayor Binay (36.6%), and Senator Roxas (36.3%)," Pulse Asia said.

"Senator Jamby A.S. Madrigal (31.6%) and Atty. Aquilino L. Pimentel (31.4%) are in 8th to 13th places while three former senators are presently ranked 8th to 14th--former National Economic and Development (NEDA) director-general Ralph Recto (30.6%), former Senator Sergio Osmeña III (28.5%), and Dangerous Drugs Board (DDB) Chairperson Vicente C. Sotto III (28.2%)," Pulse Asia added.

"Completing the list of probable winners are Mr. Willie Revillame (27.4%) who ranks 8th to 15th and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (26.6%) who is in 10th to 15th places," the polling firm said.

Meanwhile, Pulse Asia found 40% of Filipinos reported having a "complete senatorial list," down from 57% in August 2009.

Pulse Asia said this indicates that the "level of public interest in the senatorial race appears to have declined between August and October 2009," with more media attention devoted to the top two posts.

Pulse Asia said Filipinos would have chosen only 8 or 9 names for senators if polls were held last October.