SWS: 7 Team PNoy, 2 UNA bets likely to win

MANILA – Seven Team PNoy and two United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) senatorial candidates are likely to win in the upcoming elections, according to a survey done by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) two weeks before the polls.

The survey, conducted by SWS on May 2 and 3 and whose result was first published on BusinessWorld, said the following candidates are likely to win in the elections:

1 - Loren Legarda (Nationalist People's Coalition – Team PNoy) – 57% support level

2 - Alan Peter Cayetano (Nacionalista Party- Team PNoy) – 50%

3 - 4 - Maria Lourdes Nancy S. Binay (UNA) – 48%

3 - 4 Francis Joseph G. Escudero (independent-Team PNoy) – 48%

5 - Grace Poe-Llamanzares (independent-Team PNoy) - 45%

6 - 7 - San Juan Rep. Joseph Victor Ejercito (UNA) - 44%

6 - 7 - Cynthia A. Villar (NP-Team PNoy) – 44 %

8 - Aquilino Martin "Koko" D. Pimentel III (Partido Demokratikong Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan-Team PNoy) – 43%

9 - Paolo Benigno "Bam" Aquino IV (Liberal Party-PNoy) – 41%

The SWS said the 7 Team PNoy and 2 UNA bets "appear safe to win" following its survey of 2,400 registered voters nationwide.

6 candidates fight for last 3 slots

The survey said that six senatorial candidates are still capable of landing in one of the 12 senatorial slots.

Aurora Rep. Juan Edgardo "Sonny" M. Angara and reelectionist Antionio "Sonny" V. Trillanes IV, both under Team PNoy, were tied for 10th to 11th spots. They both scored 38%.

Reelectionist Gregorio "Gringo" B. Honasan of UNA landed on the 12th spot with 37% support level, while UNA bet Juan Ponce "Jack" Enrile, Jr. landed on the 13th slot with 35%.

Tied for 14th and 15th were Ramon Magsaysay Jr. of Team PNoy and Juan Miguel Zubiri of UNA. The SWS said their 33% score "is statistically capable of reaching 12th place."

The SWS said the most probable final Team PNoy-UNA score is 9-3, given the statistical ties, with 12th place going to either Honasan or Enrile.

"The next probable scores could either be 10-2 (if Magsaysay wins at the expense of Enrile) or else 8-4 (if Zubiri wins at the expense of either Angara or Trillanes)," SWS said.

"The least likely score is 7-5, if both Enrile and Zubiri win at the expense of both Angara and Trillanes."

Meanwhile, those who landed below the 12th place were:

• former party-list representative Ana Theresia "Risa" Hontiveros (Akbayan, 29%);
• former senator Richard "Dick" Gordon (UNA, 27%);
• former senator Maria Ana Consuelo "Jamby" Madrigal (LP- Team PNoy, 25%);
• Puerto Princesa Mayor Edward "Ed" Hagedorn (independent, 16%);
• former presidential contender Eduardo "Bro. Eddie" Villanueva (Bangon Pilipinas, 15%);
• former senator Ernesto "Manong Ernie" Maceda (UNA, 14%);
• Zambales Rep. Maria Milagros Esperanza "Mitos" H. Magsaysay (UNA, 13%);
• Margarita "Tingting" Cojuangco (UNA, 11%);
• party-list Rep. Teodoro "Teddy" A. Casiño (Makabayan, 9%);
• Ramon "Mon" Montaño (independent, 4%);
• Samson "Sammy" Alcantara (Social Justice Society, 3%);
• John Carlos "JC" de los Reyes (Ang Kapatiran, 3%);
• Rizalito "Bro. Lito Yap David" David (Ang Kapatiran, 3%);
• Richard "Dick" Penson (independent, 2%);
• Baldohero "Balc Falcone" Falcone (Democratic Party of the Philippines, 2%);
• Marwil "Bro. Mars Llasos" Llasos (Ang Kapatiran, 2%);
• Greco Antonious Beda "Greco" Belgica (DPP, 2%); and
• Christian Señeres (Democratic Party of the Philippines, 1%).

The survey also noted that the fill-up rate for 2013 was higher than in the 2010 elections. The survey said 44% of the respondents chose a full slate of 12, with the average at 8.7% names.

In 2010, the SWS said only 31% of the respondents chose a full slate and the average was 7.9%

The final pre-election survey by SWS and BusinessWorld had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. It had random samples of 300 in Metro Manila, 900 in Balance Luzon and 600 each in the Visayas and Mindanao. With a report from BusinessWorld